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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势$ `$ b& u8 y& W0 {; J( R# X, l+ D% a
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。# N$ J7 U/ U/ X% ?
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。( E* d v" P7 f6 u1 b+ Y$ m- T/ M+ e
3 b7 |7 x3 v" w) F2 ^# v8 t2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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( C* R9 ?8 T7 s3 I5 ^( c& U; \当前持仓成本:
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( l5 K( j+ u- {8 G4 G& o) e机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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5 h# q+ R6 e9 a* J9 {! A微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;5 e* u- @( y5 j8 z
3 R6 x' v& h$ k( `" D7 X8 v. ~ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。' y) }2 C5 Q1 ], _' Y
% Q+ \+ @7 T( K0 A比特币价值回归: g# n- f& A1 Y- u
f8 T& c! l- w) i* W, a, F市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。' q3 S% ?5 l' x' k: r
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。* L P3 o/ s: u C# k( q
) t5 b& @# W I2 N5 E# }加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。" O9 w+ P2 S* C, \. O f
1 z* l" \ \+ M% g2 [/ F% V& ^3. 市场热点与反弹情况3 e0 \3 f5 _, W
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。 X7 O( e7 J) a7 V2 V: [3 l; A
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。" Q1 F& G D% e4 S; o# Q
1 s4 e' R5 e; a i7 p如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。( N7 W* i0 n. m8 t
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SOL与XRP:
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。7 |, ~) V: E# ]4 E
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。% }3 S+ C7 U) j o Q# t F% q
/ a+ C5 _8 V% z- D9 d3 Q其他热点项目:
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$ a/ ~5 A( }! r+ b C; D涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。2 [- p, {7 V' v9 B! h8 _2 c4 Z
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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5 s8 ]4 I( k6 g! _1 f9 ], x4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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6 G5 h6 f. }8 e0 M' RAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。! z' j/ Y) F7 q- ^3 \
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。. B+ Q4 f) D \9 T6 o# {
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。. S( }' z0 v3 O1 P2 q: G9 Q
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市场展望) m# {: e$ B' x1 b! Q. W
1 P R, K" p) T* I$ Z7 z随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。1 X1 Q( Z6 |* k) k
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