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/ Z* Q9 j2 W6 m' Y加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
- Y n5 l" m; n7 I+ h1 VDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，+ s/ ?& s7 Q/ b; j# K7 r4 Y t0 I
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。3 Q5 Q; _/ i5 r0 C: G! l: ^
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
7 C! ~. B- n9 R3 KBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
w5 C) J7 F% U$ YPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：( S9 \+ c$ u5 b% d% N
2024年4月第四次减半
7 C# |! U- ]% X; N+ R, l; Z8 @机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF5 a4 y2 \7 m% d. O# \' ]
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)4 D. U4 n6 h, A- |9 t
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。# `* k( h, M8 o9 f( e5 R1 y
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
0 {# Z5 {/ K9 L5 jfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
: _& V( d- i, k, fPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠; [" d# r/ J% P: a$ [
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。3 C* }6 {$ O3 f3 Z9 |* \
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁( D9 V1 m! R$ r4 H
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统; ^+ |3 [# N( v* ~ x& F3 a+ |
金融(TradFi)产品。5 u1 \( _* N q* c
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨, j1 D2 }- N5 u% v+ `) D
链桥」的项目。% k% I9 q- M3 i; Y- S$ ^
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
7 Y. v- p1 B) k7 A q模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作: x: O3 n* \ U5 |5 H$ z3 [: i! @
等。
5 y5 \- M. q1 ^% J7 ]. g# _Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
/ b$ Q( j2 X* L! H8 e' T5 |! ^在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。% v, I6 e7 P) c1 S4 ~1 N
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
( w7 o4 m% d5 C; y3 T# t! G4 k2 _Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
" d! |% z! F8 R4 f0 p数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
# T" H+ h) X( KPantera点名了几个项目：
9 z2 C' L1 H3 lHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图% z1 ` q6 R( G( @1 K' @9 M
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
& C& @& \: X+ S: L, A4 eModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品+ ?! z) w. X' t' t3 E; ^5 N
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
7 _. o% h! i1 n3 ZRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游
* [- c) O9 H5 h+ h9 u六、小型公链需专注特定应用0 F& V* K( p1 B6 v6 c! C, C* ?
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
4 ^3 U9 H8 C) }0 p5 S& F至能直接与L2竞争。- c" z7 @& @ k0 C
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
0 P4 a( d/ o" Z. V/ B" GPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地5 y) K9 L& _; U
成为「应用链」。
( I3 H+ ^0 Q! P& t9 \/ n- m& H事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。5 s% g7 G- t! `
R$ G+ L: m9 [4 b |
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