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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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其实原文标题不是这样的
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!8 y& Q+ Y: V( @. ?: V6 [4 |
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
- ^3 p, y1 m: K* l他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
4 J2 c3 U9 v- V8 \/ a( Z2 m6 u1 G6 q0 s4 C: Z" P
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
* C# `' {8 `$ x+ g7 h. B
: x( {; b6 I$ J: H4 H9 x( z 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
# C3 Q! A) U: d2 L* j " Y* D5 F; `, r7 x0 |) q
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
4 W2 M7 }4 i: g4 L# U8 o+ a「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」0 p# Z6 d2 \% u6 Y. K
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上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
) ?6 A( V8 [* C" T
& x# f2 h) w' N接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
4 T# r$ |7 H6 c7 ~' }7 C+ a因此铜板较容易出现正面。. d/ V8 X: o' g* ?, X- ]4 ]- O
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 * W7 e$ U8 }8 ?, E' ^" b6 U* ]& G! n
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。3 m9 p/ E' k* q
心想赢定了。* H: Q% e' h2 S8 k! o; M: h
: K% c- m# A- a2 Z3 W. B" H没想到开始不到半刻钟，
2 i* N' e! U" ?4 S# R& c$ G# y赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」- ~ B _# U3 |. P
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，+ j9 B$ ?) Y B
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
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/ G+ V( }8 c; [5 e3 [赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?; q; j# x$ w3 |3 m
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：; X9 d3 n* D8 x$ z: c: c1 m
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」& e% {9 u+ N; s# F
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」% g% T' C% e9 I! o9 @* P& b9 k
「而不是先发生在我身上。」- ~8 t7 q5 x; [" e7 f: T
* C& N6 [. _; g5 I) M- p 赌徒恍然大悟，
/ i. D3 |1 M$ `! c" O+ U- U原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，9 E; F& P/ V8 B/ E0 k! g0 @/ z
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！; R( Q$ c) D. _. F, l9 P
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
) C! L' Y+ N3 t2 ?/ q2 v上帝说完便不见踪影。
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一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
. ^# p# J9 z0 u# G& v. j0 |若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，8 H3 a" S* o4 T/ p4 }# ^, X0 c$ X$ Z$ `
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
7 F4 s3 o3 H* J4 I4 n对赌徒十分有利。8 S2 u: B1 \. H7 @: I- y
. g4 L+ F. c& ]. r! G但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
, P5 f! x: U5 j3 }- n在还没掷到1000次之前，% j' {6 A2 P* M5 Z8 K5 W6 `: c
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。3 ^- I0 g( v+ \4 d& ]9 H
: d9 ?# f1 c$ o& c/ x7 b# h* ^# G 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
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3 z8 p V J5 X$ h @2 X% H 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
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市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ , [7 {$ G& \* G% z6 \" b$ N/ ~
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