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[体育菠菜心得方法] 体育博彩中的相似盘口赔率应该如何进行分析(2)
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莫尔德 VS 阿勒桑(2:2)
+ d" y! o" V6 \5 e8 d; ?4 I2 ~; m0 G( u0 @7 X+ F9 `; E+ P1 C$ P
SSP1.79 3.57 3.57,
! Z4 x/ X' ]; ?/ t4 K威廉1.90 3.20 3.50, # m# L( u) C3 J! g
立博1.91 3.30 4.00, ' c! t8 r& _" e2 X
伟德2.00 3.25 3.25—1.90 3.25 3.50,
8 }( [' _9 a' uInterwetten1.85 3.20 3.50, / K. Q- l9 K  Q$ e; S1 m" j
BET365:2.10 3.29 3.29, % ?  y5 y& l$ k) v
易胜博2.00 3.20 3.10—2.05 3.20 3.00,
$ Q* g+ g1 S, `' `; y& a' l' z& sUnibet2.15 3.30 3.25—2.10 3.30 3.40,   U$ @/ y" d: H; c! I
Coral2.00 3.20 3.20, 4 Z: H. l0 M. h7 F
PLAYIT2.10 3.35 3.25—2.00 3.35 3.50,
2 y$ W% _$ T; Y# UNordicbet1.95 3.35 4.00, 6 f% L) v1 T$ I* l( Y8 Y* g
Norway1.85 3.30 3.00
/ b& p2 }7 a: A' O平均1.99 3.31 3.49
( A7 u& M* s2 P$ A) C( T澳门初盘0.825平/半1.025,现已经升到半球高水, , [- \( \% w! h: x7 |3 A; G3 U
立博0.76平/半1.08% F5 L7 T: Z0 k" v" ~8 m
莫尔德排名12,今年前6轮4负2胜,这2胜是近2轮的,上轮客3:2胜维京暴出大冷,走势为高,而阿勒桑今年是1胜1平4负,上轮竟然主场0:1负特罗姆瑟已经降之榜尾,历史对阵阿勒桑1:1平莫尔德,客场有3:2战胜莫尔德的战绩,竟然不落下风,这是基本面的东西。
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3 m" G5 ]3 ^) x5 ^. d/ J我们看到主胜的赔率从Norway的1.85到威廉的1.90和立博的1.91,Nordicbet的1.95到伟德的2.00,易胜博,Coral的2.00,到BET365的2.10,Unibet的2.15幽默的阶梯之状。4 a& N0 u  J$ @, [9 b- j

1 {6 [7 Y1 L2 E阿勒桑客胜倒是自3.00(易胜博变盘最低)---3.20—3.25—3.29—3.50直到立博的4.00(表达了不看好客胜的态度)不一而足。平局却异常集中在3.20---3.35这样一个狭小的区域,其中威廉平局最低为3.20。
, y% j; ]: ~, `  W
0 m2 T7 ~( o" s% h0 Y我们发现主流威廉立博主胜为1.90是比较低的,而返还率差不多的Interwetten,Norway都是1.85,鉴于客队历史占优,多轮不胜,这样的赔率只能说是正常的,SSP为1.79外其它公司主胜均在主流威廉立博之上,难道小公司都是傻瓜,即使迷惑在上轮巨大的反差下,主胜也是阻不住的,并且它们还开出了客胜赔率低于平局赔率的奇异赔率,BET365和Unibet的仍然为2.10,并且BET365的客胜为3.29放在客胜心理 3.30界线上,Unibet客胜3.25也是如此,易胜博初盘3.10,变盘3.10降为3.00,主胜增加0.05,这样势必会造成客胜的幻想,在上轮巨大的反差下,我想阿勒桑即使历史占优,终不会是其客胜吧,但博彩公司为什么有如此举动呢?5 V- `8 s6 `7 [0 l  u% x+ |

( D/ c4 f0 S0 p再看SSP的1.79,看到上面的情况,玩串的看到本土的Norway为1.85,SSP的1.79会坚定一部分看好主胜者的信心,对其怀疑者感到主胜赔付低者看到Norway的平局3.30,客胜为3.00,高达3.57的平赔也会让人望而却步,而3.57的客胜比威廉的赔付相差无几,也不会有很大的心理压力,我想SSP是倾向于平局赛果的。6 Y! _; B. [0 p( J& T* A; L. X5 K3 l

3 e! F/ t$ q8 P5 t% W1 q我想提一点的是英国的彩民看到威廉的1.90 3.20 3.50,客胜仅比平局多3个百分点的确透露了客胜的担忧,那么立博平赔比威廉多0.1达到3.30跟本土Norway相同提高,表达了不看好平局的态度,看到Norway的3.00,立博的4.00也是有诱惑力的,我想立博一定是靠收主胜和负赔来平衡中间的3.30(并且一定是起了高阻的作用)。
' J' A& Q. _2 s* s" D3 Q' O0 ~. Q: v" h& E& I2 g. r8 O
所以我倾向于SSP的态度,平局。
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2#
谢谢分享,进来学习!
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3#
谢谢分享,进来学习!
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4#
楼主心得分享了。。
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