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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑2 h4 m9 I+ ^5 T5 R" `
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凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
1 X5 f5 W3 V$ o! p' e& W
7 J9 l4 k$ x+ I( P3 UG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
: b* \! Z0 E7 l4 A& h4 m Z- ?什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
% x. _ X; T9 T' [$ y. d: P3 e. r, V. d! S: @/ F
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
+ T$ M. r$ [ ^: N既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!
& Y. w% G. Q' q# [; I7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
' W$ H6 Q+ k$ H2 X5 T( Z8 ]做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
" V* D* Q( L3 U8 G( A, Z; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d* y" F% K9 J2 b U
(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
7 l/ \* m* {7 G& v* B" |7 _2 \& W& l0 c {+ S7 C
(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00 , m0 R2 ?8 |# q
( z! R" V/ H0 ~1 Y! y
(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t3 Y" G7 \3 E* J: P
# m9 m# a0 D( d* a2 X0 ?: }(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95 + M: J# k3 g! F5 c0 n# _; O3 Q" I5 a
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
|* O5 y [: |& X" F9 X我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
! O+ z4 z$ |% u5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c8 n; J: A5 q( v! `" H, Q# v( M1 ^
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 # ]& N( N# K. |/ b/ A5 D" S
' j/ C+ q9 x3 @* j* _S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
3 J( ~# U1 `/ Q$ `% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
; R0 Y) s, M A) WS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
, |1 K, \6 x$ b8 y# l9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
3 p/ {: F8 W+ H8 g% j8 XS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \! t( K& u' |. E4 L: {$ @+ I( i" f
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
* S* A; N6 l, O1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
' y' i% z4 l# Q: h5 P1 k s
7 H) I" ?: z9 ^" G. E+ E6 d- |1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
, @, C1 } X4 g; p" L9 X6 u8 m: U y1 }9 D& _% c/ A
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
" ~# K3 v0 }9 |
3 S# M2 G) g7 H& n1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
7 W \7 j: D; h* Q2 n; b. ^: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r4 e7 I0 [* p" b+ l t! F5 f' N
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
% m6 s& G1 G( T0 C* @ o/ b
@' i7 Y' |! ?" \! ?0 K3 H P$ N# q类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
9 Q$ H, Q" M: K$ C. m( { _/ p6 Q
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 4 o! N- P9 V0 R; [; i
% t# G( o+ t! o. n/ x; N tS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
6 x8 w% c- @2 p8 {* X; m' V% T, u, P% O
: g1 Q; h& B! O8 R" w9 T/ ^0 kS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 * _2 k3 O @/ } V2 X0 ^
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
6 K6 _. a7 w. OS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
! O# O( w2 x: ~) }: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
& O9 h# z4 m" S( ~# A1 N& n e6 K(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o( i) `. R- T! F. d
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好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
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+ e+ i1 q" z6 K) N" w9 WB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
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F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
! t# B7 j, V, v7 }% _+ J/ c; `4 O) |' _; b: A7 i
于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?& h4 }1 G, ]2 |0 I# ^
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
' J3 R6 ]3 o7 p: i2 Z" I) _/ DG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M5 T( K5 T7 j$ Y9 [! u) }0 E
+ D$ n) P# X# M: U- y9 X( x; o
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
; ? ^% _7 h/ y a; d! w+ j
( x1 q) s1 Q2 S" v' f H, W4 m! |G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
5 }# R% ?8 d" Y2 b& i7 b
% G3 |' C% n) _7 ^/ y0 `, Q- h% M当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
$ j8 W/ ?* r/ u/ ~2 |! }) u6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
" n2 J) |5 P/ ~ ~3 t# x通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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