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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。& k6 W' m0 H" s# Q; D
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+ b- c$ i9 X0 S }2 o# h* R西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
0 I) r3 W8 u* l' L8 I6 m/ m( k2 i
$ X7 {6 K5 e2 t' J: M: T. n5 p% P/ a以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:/ k* y z5 S8 Z$ \. | A8 d% z2 v
: Y8 ?& a' M _9 K
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
# R, w1 R! F: H, g' U" d9 W% P6 U1 T; l1 E7 T' o
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
+ d% b$ Y+ Z' U: h3 {, U. h' _0 e4 h* i2 |( h' T* m/ Q
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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: k4 V& X5 U7 D) h: b
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?3 D- T6 x/ X1 |5 \% d/ h$ v
6 C, }! M# o5 E, z2 j" E
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盈利可能性4 K* k \/ y8 M! b
/ \- N5 { y# v对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。 I1 u0 {( j/ T+ z9 Y* ~
; g* ?; [4 X9 ^1 L1 [6 G" N q增值
! j7 }; A0 i0 H- [- m; _/ n0 S* O9 C' C% Q$ e
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。/ q, Q0 q5 i7 i# q& K# g% h U( H% G4 H
. C( R# \+ P$ n" R3 K; p" Z
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 & F8 ?& g4 k, P' {+ c
. F' `: @/ ?( k1 ^. r' h- a
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么5 F- ^9 ?2 R& y9 g
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
: \6 n8 I5 R2 S# r2 C60%的机会你会一无所有, f9 j" g) `* N% j0 [
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 + \5 u7 D7 [. P! ~% Y- \" n: _
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。+ G3 w* w3 K8 {1 V' B
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。% h) e/ E4 \: Z9 M: R# @1 h
3 A3 q3 B" @6 o2 h9 W8 M+ O基于增值的投注
% m- G2 D( Z% w2 O- U0 q2 F5 F8 G t3 w* }6 ?2 k
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
9 | ^; y! H# n* {. v
) c8 {; |) J5 U- s公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
+ }0 a: l: d+ ?5 O# D0 F
; l3 X$ I0 ]. _A=博彩资金0 \$ ^$ ~7 G+ y* p+ V; A; E) _
P=获胜机会
, Y8 ?, `. [) tO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)! X2 t2 k4 r5 u
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。+ Q& f% j# ^) x& q0 g
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。, ?) I/ }6 ~0 |) H4 j
Y8 m9 ?% B: W& O/ H& ]1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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j: @/ S( B, ]& |; o结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢6 a, k' _ @1 b( |% g: y
5 z5 @0 V' ]+ n9 i: F$ m' g f2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3), R) q$ o7 G$ {6 \7 F
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
A* Z& C4 }& R; h. _
. S/ z' T" G7 v* w, _A=0.1
3 }- D( ^& B* Z
) z- @) I9 r- S, M9 ?( N结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去- M( u) K- V! M) S% j4 [
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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! @9 M% C2 i4 n& I) HA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
' _6 T9 Q9 j6 y3 A: g! N! V' |! G2 |% ]7 v \
A= -0.2
6 A, w: h& J2 |! e: L9 Y
' A& H3 A6 x. L7 e- M& e结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好* z$ s: ~ f$ W# b$ d, Z9 R
1 w' D( h5 J" V. [
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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