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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。& k6 W' m0 H" s# Q; D

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+ b- c$ i9 X0 S  }2 o# h* R西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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$ X7 {6 K5 e2 t' J: M: T. n5 p% P/ a以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:/ k* y  z5 S8 Z$ \. |  A8 d% z2 v
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?3 D- T6 x/ X1 |5 \% d/ h$ v
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盈利可能性4 K* k  \/ y8 M! b

/ \- N5 {  y# v对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。  I1 u0 {( j/ T+ z9 Y* ~

; g* ?; [4 X9 ^1 L1 [6 G" N  q增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。/ q, Q0 q5 i7 i# q& K# g% h  U( H% G4 H
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 & F8 ?& g4 k, P' {+ c
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么5 F- ^9 ?2 R& y9 g
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
: \6 n8 I5 R2 S# r2 C60%的机会你会一无所有, f9 j" g) `* N% j0 [
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 + \5 u7 D7 [. P! ~% Y- \" n: _
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。+ G3 w* w3 K8 {1 V' B
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。% h) e/ E4 \: Z9 M: R# @1 h

3 A3 q3 B" @6 o2 h9 W8 M+ O基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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) c8 {; |) J5 U- s公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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; l3 X$ I0 ]. _A=博彩资金0 \$ ^$ ~7 G+ y* p+ V; A; E) _
P=获胜机会
, Y8 ?, `. [) tO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)! X2 t2 k4 r5 u
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。+ Q& f% j# ^) x& q0 g
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。, ?) I/ }6 ~0 |) H4 j

  Y8 m9 ?% B: W& O/ H& ]1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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  j: @/ S( B, ]& |; o结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢6 a, k' _  @1 b( |% g: y

5 z5 @0 V' ]+ n9 i: F$ m' g  f2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3), R) q$ o7 G$ {6 \7 F
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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) z- @) I9 r- S, M9 ?( N结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去- M( u) K- V! M) S% j4 [
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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! @9 M% C2 i4 n& I) HA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2
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' A& H3 A6 x. L7 e- M& e结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好* z$ s: ~  f$ W# b$ d, Z9 R
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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