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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。3 J$ K9 d0 K* L7 y3 \9 M% \
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7 T- p( G Q) ^* C$ T0 v西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率% H3 |" J6 r9 w
* o3 A5 ?6 R; a) F' q以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:5 _5 |; G1 W& [& u& E
% x) y. F5 {$ e皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ; ]) O, E$ L" Z
8 c# M0 ]& Y6 R
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?- S' J9 G2 Z9 e9 ?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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- ^% S. A- P9 }) P" B, s' I. Q: B. H以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
* O& w' f3 S* z4 c. |- n3 o" v8 m0 F7 R, m8 g& k. a4 t; H% i
! k$ l& I' @8 j; l盈利可能性3 h, j: t; A5 E; c2 a
7 Q/ F l ?( L对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。! i% @% ~! H# q: {" c. \
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
& B3 {& l7 d f" b; a: z
, T J5 _7 U5 R% B你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?5 r# Z/ K& x0 w. v- L
, Z7 [. Q$ J& x- h0 \7 c* aa) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 - g0 X$ h# h/ {! u" s# T# A7 B1 f
) K: ^/ C; d2 o# q" c) ?; e正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么3 _2 D9 I# d5 e& [8 z
4 U: Z$ }7 R; l- ^9 m$ ]8 P40%的机会你会收到150元的利润6 I- K0 ?. |& A. s( _: B$ [
60%的机会你会一无所有
6 E- N' l8 d% g- E; G预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
9 b, Q3 q' W% {: H/ [, `- [由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。4 q( Q8 E, S! k% z3 A8 q7 V
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。9 w3 ^) u! g$ q9 w2 f
7 ]- s. P/ g2 o/ y6 \0 L& d4 E i
基于增值的投注" \2 l3 Z) J( P: M
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。9 D6 l2 \; m: n0 W+ X4 g: g
8 S+ b# E7 p: f5 f# I
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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" Q, H1 T4 z9 L, C6 IA=博彩资金
7 P8 q! }7 K2 L2 M$ L/ |P=获胜机会3 W( f+ X- Q6 ~* H5 ?4 u; h
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)( y3 J% `; O# ?" b
+ B7 Y* q# v0 K/ z6 Q5 S( x
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。' t0 u: c1 B0 |; q' m
, ^! {$ f4 B( M好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。; M6 o( ?2 a1 {# ]$ T9 R
2 ^: I N8 q, n( _1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)+ B3 K0 O s& s) _+ T$ E0 i
6 a' X( v- ~+ ~+ m6 J8 r8 l, }A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)2 e) v- d- U( n9 x
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A=0
& }4 y R" c! y7 Q: ~$ B4 a$ k0 ~. c! m6 ~! @3 j& C% ^5 ?3 U. T
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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. o q1 d2 Z* `0 }& yA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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3 u0 D4 j+ b8 PA=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)3 B1 U. x8 {; {; n T
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)2 k: l4 K% j" N, H: y7 M9 \# R
0 ~5 v t4 R# o
A= -0.2
+ `' h- F6 H* p: f
0 [+ N9 S1 h6 B1 O: _结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
# y7 E$ B; d# _; z$ m( k" Q! }0 O0 f! |& f5 V8 L6 m
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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