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[lastpost] => 2768025 加密货币已不再是单纯的炒币...现在可用币买房买车交学费,连“冷冻身体”都行... 1758903906 天策-瑶娥
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势& G* h \+ J0 m) \4 |+ v$ K6 N7 K* d
& Z8 c8 T! @! {* O3 g
过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。* ?! T1 Z2 z) [. S
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。, R+ Z5 l# H& B' ]6 {# m/ \$ @
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。5 x& y0 f* p+ f/ q+ Y) `. L
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期- _2 d! a9 U3 A& \# } S6 a$ T7 _# r! Y
; Z5 h* e& `& L+ T+ _" Q2 H. E当前持仓成本:
$ m1 a1 ^) P+ W
9 b) D- T4 W; L4 ~& r d机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
# _" w1 N2 c7 h( u) M; W% A& \' L; o/ N6 X; n
微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
& R6 [. I3 b. a2 V
+ I3 c& K; ` q2 ?4 v2 k# a4 VETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。+ M8 ~5 `. }4 J4 n
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比特币价值回归:2 L7 q1 n' L7 k' {4 a9 a
6 H: `+ o' F6 }8 @2 I4 A市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。$ J `' i$ d/ o' V x. }, _ U- p. G
" r3 `4 Q% m& B" m8 X加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况/ b! s6 Z+ u% u% }
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ETH:
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% _9 t& Z& \4 {2 r8 Q2 `虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。8 q' ]5 h% M1 f8 M, W
5 N$ Y" q* @/ }! ?
机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。/ d, o+ F6 h2 F' _+ w' [" z
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BTC:; J1 W0 B7 }/ Z" W" |+ |! X$ Z
1 }3 ~! n3 w3 _: j尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。- D+ ~& C3 s M+ j
% q1 W# w/ @* }如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:# Y5 l9 _4 w& h6 X
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。( f1 `2 a6 y) |; b5 N: c. @$ t% `
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
: f2 \" d9 C! D. L7 l0 e6 i9 {
) \* L- N+ r4 e2 w其他热点项目:# t1 ~* h& T& d* n, T$ O; }8 b
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。: _. Q; r. }% \4 s1 Z- z# h1 J# u ]3 S
; c: T1 l6 Q( z$ }& H0 W7 X* v# j8 y山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
C3 n C1 B) Q' k2 f( c
% {5 h! }$ A5 }4. AI赛道与新兴项目) @0 b4 A; _! o$ W" y
- c' X3 z! s' L0 q" L% |AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
6 }: b \6 I1 U: A$ @
, S, J( Y2 Q/ Q蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。$ ^2 m+ b5 n0 G/ o% |
% ?5 _& R. r2 X) \
新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。2 _: p# b. `! f
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市场展望" Q% n& o$ R5 o; i
m$ a$ e# f6 v* f随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。4 S6 M; ]# e* Z, t- Y" A( I3 H$ k: T
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