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大小球盘本质上就是与全场入球总数相关的盘口,计算它的依据就是进球数的概率。& w n: ?7 w1 t. R6 R- B% ~6 L% j' V
我们先引入下列符号:# i$ v" {4 m2 q: U
Pn(n=0;1;……;x)表示在一场比赛中可能出现的各个进球数的概率。) C* g0 `, m6 `
即:P0=全场进0球的概率;P1=全场进1球的概率;……。
4 y I/ f' \+ j! X7 Z+ K0 C9 R& @. n8 _那么 ∑Pn=P0+P1+P2+……+Px=100%。
W. Y! Z+ k# T: l8 g {+ |Bo表示大球的投注总数,D表示投注大球的回报总数额,O(Over)表示大球的赔率。
0 D: o* G4 ^1 E bBu表示小球的投注总数,X表示投注小球的回报总数额,U(Under) 表示小球的赔率。% C* r& T6 z8 @( k# f: ]' v
# O5 ?% b0 a# g4 W
在一场比赛中,我们以G表示大小球的盘口(G为任意数);K表示全场入球总数的结果。* j( ~" a! q1 L4 B, f" Y2 m
在任意盘口G下,全场比赛会出现如下3个结果:. R# f# m( q& Z: O4 p* g
1:K>G 即出现我们通常所说的大球。
2 E0 S8 V( t3 D% N9 V F$ M- h2:K=G 即出现我们通常所说的走盘。
6 B6 p/ i9 p4 `$ g6 I. K3:K<G 即出现我们通常所说的小球。
& f5 L3 _. P/ a% n6 s V- h% I' }1 e6 ^& [; ]- Y F
那么在此盘口下投注大球的回报总数额为:5 J. U- \, h! u3 m
D1:(K>G)={Bo* O 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。
& g5 i, i+ K- V* L7 _' ~$ KD2:(K=G)={Bo 即走盘退回本金。
9 U. d6 _# P b. U" g8 l, U7 iD3:(K<G)={0 即输盘失去本金。
3 Y- {, L6 y* L+ L; _3 G% S0 `! A" {
同理在此盘口下投注小球的回报总数额为:9 N( y. A. o& ~( ^( e
X1:(K>G)={0 即输盘失去本金。0 F. K# f0 q2 _' q, k$ m
X2:(K=G)={Bu 即走盘退回本金。1 t! |# [' l4 A+ n. I5 f' W5 X4 O1 Z
X3:(K<G)={Bu*U 即赢盘获得与此盘口相对应赔率的回报。* K; U: S) g4 x( ~" ^: x- V
% b% `" p E7 H0 v下面分别描述大小球盘为2.5球;2.5/3球;3球;3/3.5球时的大小球盘赔率计算方法,其余盘口可以由此类推。
7 W& O" Z$ x1 [* T* ^# q# Y( w/ e6 w9 Y5 G& l
1:大小球盘为2.5球(G=2.5)
& m$ n. A) j9 o0 g; Z% b1 m( c) }6 S/ k6 V! ?0 T! B
在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:& b! f( b- T1 d) a7 O0 q
K=0 D0=0
, F" l$ N/ E( D) f. q. Q& vK=1 D1=0
! B; L, e8 f% E4 F$ FK=2 D2=0+ x7 Q9 X- {( k5 c. _
K=3;4;....x D3+= {Bo* O
) P2 ], g0 \9 }/ I+ y6 }9 k3 Z; U. B- X# h& i
投注大球的期望回报总数为:∑D=Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2)=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)
I9 G4 b: o( W& [) _在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
$ x5 @" _; c8 f$ B* Q4 K5 ~( e ∑D=Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=Bo/ _/ C7 K5 c& L
O*(1-P0-P1-P2)=1
$ J2 ], o9 m0 ~! f, n& n2 d 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=1/(1-P0-P1-P2)
& x' C d$ |6 ~( {7 _ 或者表述为 O=1/∑Pn----------(这里n=3;4;……x)" \: K3 J) @& q4 |
: A" }2 @$ {3 @) k( u" [
在大小球盘为2.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
6 _6 G0 o* n( \6 hK=0 X0=Bu*U 5 F+ x! R' T7 N
K=1 X1=Bu*U 6 Q9 p9 V, H& }$ B3 g9 s
K=2 X2=Bu*U . d0 U. G7 g2 |4 {* [( d7 D
K=3;4;....x X3+=05 r! W& y" w' s- Q: M4 F. I' n
1 ~# O5 j6 h' I5 m$ i
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U
7 Y1 T6 D$ S& h1 F4 u, H在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
Y$ @# B* H' _4 U3 D% Q# i ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U=Bu
; I: S; \9 J! M3 _( ?0 c) m U*(P0+P1+P2)=1
( v- |$ x; W2 \ 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=1/(P0+P1+P2)
1 F9 k' ^+ b! w! Q5 C8 N& n( w' H8 q" g) [* M
2:大小球盘为3球(G=3)6 a- b6 a- a# v, d% Z: f
. s9 |. o4 G1 ~在大小球盘为3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:
4 \4 u" P' n% e) s( I; }K=0 D0=0 2 m; _# y' y& \ `) ?, A
K=1 D1=0
- d0 H' Q7 w4 XK=2 D2=0
" r! ~. Y1 [! `! y+ MK=3; D3= Bo
& @; Z" I: U" q3 dK=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
9 o( M6 ^0 U+ _1 y; d; t6 I I" h) ^2 ?
% U8 P. p! g& y* W) W" @$ h8 c投注大球的期望回报总数为:
1 b" R+ e6 X7 C∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)= P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
/ K! I0 [0 ]4 ^7 l8 N在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。4 e( o$ E! ~9 D, P2 l2 h
∑D=P3* Bo +Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo9 t% a4 b7 H6 E0 g- K0 [
P3+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1& ]2 l! i3 t; p' R" D4 }8 w
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3): J7 d* J/ N' K6 j
或者表述为 O=(1-P3)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)3 \. F% F& Y3 k4 e1 t. N
/ e! \9 m! V: z5 L! C在大小球盘为3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:# O( D$ u7 `% C9 g1 [
K=0 X0=Bu*U
5 e% Y6 ]9 d/ v5 m6 z, o) V' YK=1 X1=Bu*U 2 u0 {) A: E6 K; }- B( Y
K=2 X2=Bu*U
% i, }, W5 _9 K3 OK=3 X3= Bu3 x2 o: `: |0 E* y
J=4;5;....x X4+=0: L Z1 p/ F2 B7 z8 U
3 K/ ]! c, D2 j6 d" B& _1 m5 B
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu
" F9 Y) w$ K# F9 n在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。
, G2 U0 `) ]2 [: A0 U% z5 E ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu =Bu8 J8 \. D# u/ B
U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3=13 o4 s: Q! `% U$ I+ o0 R
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3)/(P0+P1+P2) W" h/ |% q/ |( Y/ h9 Q
+ O& P1 ^) z- q' X Z$ {, M/ P- l4 h3 d3:大小球盘为2.5/3球(G=2.5/3)
' M+ i$ G8 M% i
- ~* {! [7 m& T% h# o3 H在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:2 a" m! ]" M$ J/ r7 E
K=0 D0=0 6 `' \: h; y2 R8 Z
K=1 D1=0 : `1 U6 E; ~2 ]# P" n$ y: m
K=2 D2=0! @$ l: ?$ ~ K) S# j
K=3; D3= Bo/2+ O*Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘赢盘)
! }( w5 V$ \! M3 ~& G* P* P `. |K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O ( h' e8 U. l2 I: O3 Y. ?6 I" b) @
: X: E4 e. ^ J* R投注大球的期望回报总数为:
/ x- u& M- ~4 h6 F# m ∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O*Bo/2+Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)9 `1 g9 e6 G, Y
= P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
) O: e% ~# C5 M" ^# g5 Q4 {在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。/ p, O: G! {& _6 w H5 m% s- t
∑D=P3* Bo/2 +P3* O* Bo/2+Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
: v# y1 H, v! [" q+ W. k( q P3/2+ O* P3/2+O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1
% i8 ], g0 l7 m" s! A- b- M6 i0 C O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3+ P3/2)=1- P3/2
4 S) m; F! q. V2 P 在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3/2)
+ U; V8 ]/ \+ ?5 E8 A( J5 s
" H4 d+ y( |6 r7 H i在大小球盘为2.5/3球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
* h5 b3 y5 q- hK=0 X0=Bu*U $ `2 M' V. r8 F, S' z( I
K=1 X1=Bu*U
) y# P J/ F+ G2 E- ? b' B9 N4 P* D4 lK=2 X2=Bu*U
b" m9 u) z( x* `; m* K/ }K=3 X3= Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在2.5球盘输盘)1 s4 q$ D; {6 x, w. }
J=4;5;....x X4+=0
( w: y' t5 n" y9 w2 g6 H3 W( I D
投注小球的期望回报总数为:∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/20 v" O8 e( W1 |8 F
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。# j4 m& I6 n3 s& }2 ]( W3 b
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2 =Bu& V1 A$ `2 L+ [9 L2 W a3 \2 `
U*(P0+P1+P2)+P3/2=1
- w+ q9 T! Y+ \2 t: f& j 在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2)/ `0 {* K$ w6 }) d3 z3 B
' ]0 \) ~, w, h4 f2 M; `% m4 C
4:大小球盘为3/3.5球(G=3/3.5)
, ]$ s* ]( n3 e& x" m7 h2 U
/ M/ S% H( D) b( b; X/ e在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注大球的回报总数额为:, H. \ h# ^) y. Z* g, m: P
K=0 D0=0
4 t$ S2 q* j7 q/ x& T4 @- N+ JK=1 D1=0
! T R$ \. v3 U M% x4 E {" sK=2 D2=0
R( g" f& F, v, [K=3; D3= Bo/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘输盘)/ X5 z, I+ S; ~2 a7 _6 z/ x
K=4;5;....x D4+= {Bo* O
8 t/ u) K7 _' O1 Y1 Q6 d6 ?: c# P% H5 f
投注大球的期望回报总数为:# A6 a+ X2 j, D( ~' M3 a7 U
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(∑Pn-P0-P1-P2-P3)
! R, @5 d6 i4 T+ ` = P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3), t8 w) S+ ~: o0 A6 c6 J
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。$ ^ u% }# w7 m7 z1 I c6 @% h, V
∑D=P3* Bo/2 + Bo* O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=Bo
/ f \, P& C; D0 F* L P3/2+ O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=12 k8 O( ?: |3 g% M, p
O*(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)=1- P3/2" B/ P1 Z$ D0 V4 q. T8 I3 h
在此盘口下,大球的赔率为 O=(1-P3/2)/(1-P0-P1-P2-P3)
( s" v9 E0 f( t. W# r 或者表述为 O=(1-P3/2)/∑Pn----------(这里n=4;5;……x)
. |4 x* h: [* {( E9 x4 j& ^, Z# w$ `5 s9 [8 j
在大小球盘为3/3.5球时,投注小球的回报总数额为:
7 h$ z: q% g; U5 n' V3 @$ Y5 MK=0 X0=Bu*U % Z7 h$ Q% b8 y. a
K=1 X1=Bu*U & X; y' [- i8 K# \2 A1 k" I
K=2 X2=Bu*U * d3 V7 @& {3 B; F2 `2 }3 N
K=3 X3= Bu/2+U* Bu/2(即投注额的1/2在3球盘走盘; 投注额的1/2在3.5球盘赢盘)* f1 k- { F- e1 K- G
J=4;5;....x X4+=0+ y0 h: @* F9 B8 r
) [. A$ L1 z/ O F7 M投注小球的期望回报总数为:
6 S. h3 w" a% G, I6 M K ∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2( J; r' b7 S1 D7 t0 g/ K
在公平条件下,我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等。9 l3 p0 u" O3 c' l1 j x# L
∑X=P0*Bu*U+P1*Bu*U+P2*Bu*U+P3* Bu/2+ P3*U* Bu/2 =Bu' E) c9 I! c) K) `$ ?
U*(P0+P1+P2+ P3/2)+P3/2=1& l% k& O& S7 o: `
在此盘口下,小球的赔率为 U=(1-P3/2)/(P0+P1+P2+P3/2)
A# U# _6 g- I: ~. o7 z
0 h% D3 w) H" F+ O4 Z8 q% r2 I. J$ I0 l' ~" J* Y0 n
一场足球比赛就是以主,客进球数最终是多少来体现其结果的.
+ Y; i* c! J D2 Z. m5 q大部分博项的赔率都可以通过进球概率这个基本数据实现互相转换!
. ~& T; C$ Q! U+ S+ }' s
) E! t$ n, L' U$ F9 BP0 P1 P2 P3 P41可以由统计函数生成,也可以由开盘赔率计算得出,比如用波胆赔率计算。(这种方法计算出的Pn值有一定的偏差) |
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