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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 & k& c4 B# @( e
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( K/ }2 t4 F% ?6 E只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔+ E0 u8 W) f1 [3 o$ f
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，: r2 {, g& M* ~0 Z6 ?

  B3 U4 t2 B2 j# E  z5 Z9 C8 h偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。! n2 B" y. X0 {7 b4 s
+ r$ c% p# z6 ^" n
方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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8 P( L! L1 V. ^- Y' f然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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' r% h9 F/ J) |4 h1 ]: c就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱0 c3 {6 s/ T3 E' a& @& C

1 ]6 P( K0 A" m+ w2 y- x当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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! L) z6 R7 s6 x& t$ }7 j) V  N- L2 n* A3 f9 Z  @, L
亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，* q, B1 A& J5 r2 d2 K
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
3 |" \1 u0 _2 j! I7 ?
% ]" I' |& J. z8 e但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。! L% \1 k+ r: `% K' h% {
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# m0 Y+ ?& }% I9 d* j# ?$ q理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。. y" W) ]  Z4 o6 L, R

3 R2 J9 }; R* q' ?  W( O8 E排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，9 ?# l7 K0 q) `2 O1 p5 p; H" u

  ^+ o2 I: ^( b+ D6 u  ]但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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" e2 G# b1 k. h9 Q7 L# Y这比买国债存银行合算。% q9 j' `1 q$ b* o

1 k; b8 X( E7 C4 I# b9 A& j3 }! g4 g在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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5 M- L" V3 ~. f+ |7 l6 y- a常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
5 R$ b' q& \# d% d# Z3 c" X3 |& z- t# L. {  {; ]  `/ J
放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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6 s" f( R3 r+ Z+ J( ^* ^; _% I; s就是回避了大的亏损，! y! v$ h* b! s5 r! c' U9 C& {

5 U% }: q( t' e3 h8 x: T大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，+ e- \3 X* A5 A, }

! `5 l0 j; b% z$ @' X  X回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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