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[真人] 求教百家乐优势概率和返水极限问题
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本帖最后由 DC老兵 于 2013-5-22 11:21 编辑
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) n& a( G, g7 ?( I. {刚和一个朋友聊到优势问题
6 o7 u1 M; b. s+ Y; X# h8 S0 X2 ~正常的算法是2 K3 Z' m' W, j+ f. u
庄家(Banker) 403,095,751,234,560 45.87% 1.06%
3 \; y. [; ^4 O7 B* N- M7 P闲家(Player) 392,220,492,728,832 44.63% 1.24%
5 l$ p( @8 |9 {) W6 H9 ~# }  g和局(Tie) 83,552,962,932,288 9.51% 14.44%
! p1 g0 M& W3 R" i& z+ ?问题一:若永远不下“和局”,那么庄闲的优势如何计算,因为庄闲情况是存在的,只是不下注而已2 ?# b0 n- |5 V& B8 O
问题二:极限返水问题,若永远不下“和局”的话返水达到多少时庄家优势为06 g7 A# T" ?" h( d6 Q- Z8 \1 z/ `5 e

; J+ G3 x' M, E# }1 W+ O9 g我的的粗略算法是, C0 Q( n  n* h" J6 m1 j
每次下100元,下两次,从概率看庄闲各中一次,共下注200元,被抽水5元,收195元,若返水1%的话加2元,实收197元,赔率是0.985(197除以200). q! Z8 b9 g3 M  ^- O* j1 P" Z( q
这是粗算法,其实按精算法看出庄的概率大些,所以不能平分,/ I2 ]# k  \8 j# G3 x' o/ f- z+ I
这样算的话返水达到2%都不算高,
6 q: R# v  n4 v9 @! G0 n' m# c但另一个朋友的算法不是这样,带有些精算,讨论中8 ?- G3 t( U8 k, ^% ~, c
大家也帮帮下2 f8 l9 w1 J2 B/ B/ Z( f) C

8 U) ]' D5 o+ }' F问题一:若永远不下“和局”,那么庄闲的优势如何计算,因为庄闲情况是存在的,只是不下注而已
" F: m4 O$ y# L7 v. R) _3 W问题二:极限返水问题,若永远不下“和局”的话返水达到多少时庄家优势为0
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/ E: h* N" Y9 \( L, }$ o8副牌, 押玩家
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第一,若不算和局,开庄几率百分之50.68,开闲几率百分之49.32
5 D) F- l& \: r. r" Q( J/ ^第二,庄家反水给到1.265的时候,庄家优势为0
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第一,若不算和局,开庄几率百分之50.68,开闲几率百分之49.32* B+ q6 x0 V4 B1 v; O
第二,庄家反水给到1.265的时候,庄家优势为 ...
& @4 `" n- M5 o' w6 j8 P2 `1 cacml1986 发表于 2013-5-22 11:23
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    说的比较靠普 楼主都没算输掉的反水
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回复 3# 艾欧里亚
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    扫扫盲,现在网赌公司各项优惠加起来,玩家早就正收益了
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
回复 4# acml1986 " b, x& ?: U$ O4 n3 ^# q
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:lol 正收益也难挡偶尔一次冲动啊
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回复 5# 艾欧里亚
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    正收益也是零点几的微弱优势嘛,冲动带来的负收益是百分之几千几万了,哈哈
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回复 6# acml1986 / y- l1 D6 I1 Y4 a9 M$ A
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; k1 I% [- l; ~8 L7 n# E& a% n    战胜DC看来是比登天还难了,不如家当全弄进去 梭哈两手 告老还乡得了:lol
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回复 7# 艾欧里亚 7 F7 L; k7 h9 H' K

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- {& ?+ M- F  U    是啊,破了人性还要破数学概率,这两样破其中一项都难比登天,更何况还要同时破两项,拿家当梭哈两把赌报应绝对是玩百家乐最好的打法
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我的精算法是
! e/ y2 O- v: R- u" P- E/ I* H5 u( `# e第一步得出三者的概率:
% E6 L3 q& ]8 C2 v出庄0.458597
5 s; \( J4 `" ~- e/ ^出闲0.446247  j6 C$ p1 \  b) y
出和0.095156- g9 u, T! `0 h: v
第二步去掉和局,把庄闲换算成100%,庄闲丙者加起来100%  D3 j5 e9 d3 `& M  P1 ]
庄+闲=0.904844
$ T9 t' x  |7 U6 I: B$ h+ K换算成100%& T; s+ `( X( y3 G# x' F- r
庄的概率是0.458597/0.904844=0.506824=50.6824%+ K! w5 c7 A  O! \3 W' F
闲的概率是0.446247/0.904844=0.493176=49.3176%
: R/ ^) A5 ^! f, j5 o4 }, K* W. T8 w9 e6 U押庄家时的优势是  C. J; n! P2 h/ @+ m3 w0 {2 }
50.6824%*0.95(抽水金)=48.1482%
/ V" v& I9 e6 t  ^闲-49.3176%
7 y$ p; o! E( a5 l, Z5 R6 l两者相加玩家优势-1.1694%
. Q4 @1 I6 k( u8 @3 ]( W押庄家时的优势是-1.3648%
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回复 9# DC老兵 ! K" [1 k/ Q0 C
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" v. [5 A8 {+ Z  ?& {' M2 U    一般来说,就是全押庄,负收益是1.17,全押闲,负收益是1.36
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回复  DC老兵 # H! c, Q9 t3 ]8 k, m7 R; C! k
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2 a4 p& Z) Z1 \# ?, h' B    一般来说,就是全押庄,负收益是1.17,全押闲,负收益是1.36! K' G- f8 ^6 K+ m: ]
acml1986 发表于 2013-5-22 12:19
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    谢谢
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回复 11# DC老兵 ; I7 r, _/ n5 b. q& z
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+ O' ?7 e& G9 n7 p5 W- K* P& Y    不用谢,还有撒概率方面的问题没,你现在应该看到,反水如果达到2,是多么大的正收益
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13#
楼主数学挺好啊
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谢谢楼主 的分享
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回复 7# 艾欧里亚 4 v; _% M/ g6 {$ Q% S5 F8 b( r

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& G( |  D' z! l9 ^' m   这个是完胜庄家的唯一办法 但是有个前提 就是梭哈赢了 这辈子都不再玩了~
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第一,若不算和局,开庄几率百分之50.68,开闲几率百分之49.32
) ]) w2 }5 F  B( J8 M0 s/ N第二,庄家反水给到1.265的时候,庄家优势为 ...$ R' m+ [/ n  g7 E- Z  h
acml1986 发表于 2013-5-22 11:23

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    说的太对了
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