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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


3 e1 G- a9 j: w+ d( ~/ w. i賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
8 Y0 e' K, s& h, G, o7 L  S& u3 V10A23456789
( ?0 c' h) r) e, j. y4 k- t-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159
( w- j8 F/ f5 a7 H5 z; K* ?% T! B-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
7 s* s2 G" k+ n9 I; a-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133% I- r! g+ L& {! M6 W2 x
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
2 `. o8 D+ _" Z- B' ]" i7 j6 L-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.1080 x. k) ]# e+ T+ f
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
+ Y! r0 V0 E6 ]9 w6 p-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085' K& k: C# d. C9 ?& T/ I1 i0 k
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074- O' ?, S# f9 S8 g, f% i
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
7 h! X% R8 Q! F$ x! w* w6 L1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054  \  O' f, }) R' M( y
2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
  F0 N# O4 A% |- ^) r; y3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
, ^- E. }! \+ d, ]( m4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
5 [) f1 Y4 Q2 N/ ~& G$ p5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
8 L/ D' l5 @6 a2 U, t% V, E$ b1 ^/ \6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013( A, e0 p, @8 ]6 U3 s; F3 [9 u
7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
& L. ~' z$ R  e3 w8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001
' H" V* F& Y' ?% b1 S( \+ q9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.9968 j% q( R, x. q+ b# D- B- Z
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.9925 m0 {$ ~5 B4 o+ W  |
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.9885 c7 `6 i& m" s1 ]
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
! ]. x- p) U( [- ?  C7 p! u1 C13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.9824 Q) |& U% N+ J4 X: p
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
4 j0 c; X. C1 D( c15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979) v# v+ @- k1 L- F% u
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
. t, C0 |. Y* e17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
8 a4 `  J  {0 i5 {! N18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979: o1 B+ p$ f$ _
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981+ V( _% y& O9 B' O6 h! X+ l& I
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.9834 d& ]& @; }& t% Y* v
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986
1 X: l- F0 _. }5 h9 Z' a6 ]22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
# ^- e8 U' B9 s% T' x23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
' H: v& v7 D& k1 m( D24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997  g  _! F. ?# G5 Y: X
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
, o# {% J" G; ?; G/ [% |8 G

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。

: W$ j9 @9 ^5 R" F) ]4 |8 `
表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類+ V  \, N+ W8 ?
10A23456789! G$ y  E1 B0 |9 B
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
" h5 @4 d5 |+ O! C9 O9 R3 ]; V-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082- N* u8 K1 _/ b; [( f, k
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069& P/ H* r& a- H" h5 L) o% o1 }
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056/ [, J  z; m8 w
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.0449 s9 q6 c. i! Q8 F' \! X, {
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032! I; p9 ^3 P, R1 _' l
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
* x9 d7 j, w  {* x-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.0103 `& b! ]6 V# s1 S2 J# P
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
, X) z" c2 s" K9 ?- t4 ]1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010& Q9 V' z  f0 o9 _, [* d
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019) w# E+ K; }) b- `- n- f
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.0284 B. C# l% z. g8 d! l# d. T' P
4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036# g+ l8 m2 D- h( p2 E$ D* S; T
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
. H. M$ w* i: ?. K3 B- U6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.0517 Z& W/ W( _  j( l3 k0 |
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057: e) y0 k( ^# Q7 Y
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063, m0 f& A* z" ~6 W$ j% {) e2 f( n+ e
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068; j0 _9 C$ G* ?$ P% @; x* _
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072! n, V  t. P& L% C* @
11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
/ V; A9 b1 i) n  _" d: a5 r12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079( k/ q: l& A2 h
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082; u5 ?+ O) B( D+ h, ]3 X
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
2 k- y7 V" r! L% z2 |+ Q15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085! m* `) H# p/ I
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
. M9 S0 D3 j( B9 W. c+ x17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
" \" Z$ E2 A- O18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085/ H) L& _) \- w, W1 `' }* o+ ?
19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.0830 K. s' `  u+ g- v* A' W
20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.0816 C& x7 y) N/ K. a, s6 x1 L
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
+ x! d. E& a+ F% V1 C22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
+ k; N8 y" H8 g% a* d/ I23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071& Y' ~9 u, D" a" ~) q$ ^3 e
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
3 d/ f0 @( _  l& J8 l25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
9 J7 a) U& ~0 g; X; ~4 f1 D. U

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

/ Y6 L7 [* k" b. i2 n
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類. e7 J4 z% _: @, y+ M9 ]% Q
10A234567895 i9 Q/ a" w2 X) Z* L  P/ d
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
! X* B$ p$ @- i9 l9 W  M-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
; R8 z$ }$ l% K9 {( O-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.1525 t* x/ K* |7 R5 X2 o" j
-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.1661 C4 V) N3 e3 s6 L' _
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180& U- C2 @% [8 N! g- p4 j9 m  @- j, v8 [
-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
- Z/ x+ u  `2 O/ q3 _# E/ [-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
- g9 `3 ~) v( Q* ]3 a; e. |-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217$ m% X5 G- N# |! M1 D
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228& Z4 z( S# d: |# a4 I
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
, p0 H' q9 [6 |! a& n- M: D2 q2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
  ~' M" C: h7 d3 F# \( C( y3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.2585 b$ u' N4 a7 y
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
* T! H' Y% `' \4 w5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274: E6 V. o7 k& ]7 O
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.2811 K! ~& O2 @7 X4 a0 N4 A" h
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287: W& ]4 J* u0 \7 ^! V1 _; `
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.2937 \8 G! a4 a$ P2 t' R
9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.2988 q9 w" [6 p, m$ M' R( H
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.3028 T, \* [" d1 M3 ~2 `# l+ H7 b* ~
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
# {$ `' L( |! H: V12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308  y" M1 N) I- c5 X( E; q
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310: y* H" w, r1 x2 y, R
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
/ v& u2 [# b% `15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
- a" L9 c; P* K4 O3 K0 z' a16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311/ Y  J) J* b* @+ q' g
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310+ d6 M' A4 y# h1 e; M
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
/ P$ Q4 Y  v$ ]% h' q19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305, @* A. k2 t7 x
20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301! L7 S9 A0 o! c9 |- g) U* A0 A% f, V
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297) q0 M. z9 C+ [  K  P, }
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
# u3 w. ^. b# y2 |* {; E# T23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
' Q& i8 `8 i& ^7 ]  o# Z24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279
: m" T) N7 r; W+ ?2 K25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272' o0 S) G4 ~9 R  ~& ^0 e

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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