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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。$ A4 o/ ]' Y2 j J1 [" w/ v
2 s) N- g( p! r) c4 c4 x9 k2 D% {2 s, }) r5 c ?
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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8 H/ ]# q" y. `( ^% q以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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$ }7 h* ^9 Y+ a0 @5 _皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% & n' E ]- H9 Y# a$ W
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
% `7 j0 {' _2 U8 o
' Q, F6 \- t9 B2 x! N. N1 p. H答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)* H$ B- r8 \" A; _ S( n0 f( `
4 r- e6 t9 j. p" Z5 G. ?0 D4 X$ q
; E; O* ]/ @% Z以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性; n! \: D3 D4 e: [# B
3 X" E/ ~8 e- {4 b( N4 P! f# {6 E# o对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。$ E1 }5 e1 F5 o/ P9 k
+ `4 l3 H- k7 Y4 E/ w8 O
增值- W# y8 n3 ^) V5 O
2 q0 f$ Y1 i9 h( F许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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4 H5 {/ U, t# s( z你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?8 s+ ]! ]9 L7 `& O+ g I2 S" A! Y7 M9 h0 @
1 u" G( |# w) Y+ X* J. V
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
1 M5 `; M, v, ~/ N* {1 r- t
8 v% m4 x' U4 |7 ?& a! ]( \正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
# ~- `0 |# u4 p% K A8 |/ M! Z. Z9 j
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润2 T5 E8 s% g5 |7 V1 y. c+ Q
60%的机会你会一无所有
0 X+ M+ ~) Z/ q4 C) _预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
?1 G6 \( L; R, T' b由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。4 d/ z- l7 k: b
9 X6 w: U2 s* I# c& g2 m4 P
增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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, \5 C% K" s- @: K% w基于增值的投注6 j6 ]" @/ M3 ?: E
& n& D4 A; F, w
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
* E, ~4 S2 F0 {/ K& L4 [( j0 R2 K
$ t5 c7 |( A$ V& d2 \; e公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)& V7 h- H8 e' e6 R) ~! o# e1 ~
/ U/ C% \3 v/ p& G7 P( iA=博彩资金
8 A4 r1 ^/ F7 `/ G4 @& ZP=获胜机会; S" R u- O) Q0 @8 L
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
, X: n0 g& G9 K. c; ?4 ~" O0 T3 @9 i& G7 j: c, b: ^& C
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。1 P% Y' W: Q7 g% v7 v$ t
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。7 F& s* l0 o$ q
6 ~# v; S/ V$ S3 \1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)2 N2 p1 w' [; }: m" O
+ i$ H; k% T( o* p
A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
* i) e2 `1 ~- a- O: \) p. D# U6 ^" J. S' J# J/ I) b
A=08 S% }: s/ ?) n9 y* b
8 s5 F+ |" ^; m结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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9 L1 t% O) s4 ]- {, K/ T: z2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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9 Y5 T5 E/ w& U( LA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
* ^" P1 f/ u9 v/ p9 L- @" @9 r8 \! e' m
A=0.1' r2 G1 E% m4 Q: E
% x6 |' s0 |) \" c+ Y结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去6 j; L# Q+ q: |$ _* j( a1 |: w3 z
- U3 U: q( ]9 [" [
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
0 F' i- z- G. |! w/ I( y7 T" f+ J& X7 [1 ]
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
- O% {, G& U1 ^" e" o3 y4 y( e! K7 }
A= -0.2
) {/ r/ ~7 B) {2 r3 u
: A, S/ b3 e7 G& J; Y- B1 m2 J+ i结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好4 s7 @* ^0 A& p' x4 I; ?; [% g
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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