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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率# w- s7 j3 F( t" f
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% . ~3 n+ c+ f# X5 `
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)6 w: `6 Z  m; N1 [. v

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8 o% A; M/ q/ M1 L以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?/ T: X2 F9 ]* w1 n: P* U5 p

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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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" Y3 T3 Z6 T6 V3 e/ K许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。5 d9 V4 x) K6 v% w3 ^5 t& y* q; Q
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?; k7 T" a! y# j2 }4 y! z+ N

1 L1 [  G+ `* n  t, @8 ta) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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* z! Y/ B. p" J  ]& y  A, D正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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! p0 y9 p' ^& Z0 K40%的机会你会收到150元的利润1 H$ l) h+ w! {/ K" B4 Q2 E
60%的机会你会一无所有
; i2 B8 f0 P5 Y3 [+ G; V预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 ) ~; e! p0 x: h; d$ r( }% a
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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$ ~9 F0 ?# \6 l/ \+ n基于增值的投注
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* b8 w+ k2 |; ]凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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6 |/ a! G+ q! M4 L4 M6 L公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)0 Q/ P( c/ {: y' ?8 P/ z
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A=博彩资金, T3 R) l$ o6 N+ w9 |. s! ~
P=获胜机会
. {4 g7 q8 @" q: l7 KO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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! J( I- g1 {; L! T; v. R好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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. y0 E4 p6 x5 o+ I0 I$ h* I1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)& b/ a* ~6 Y( S6 I; v( k8 U* ?7 R
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5): N( Q2 k, U' S8 e
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A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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4 r% \$ Y; V6 o4 f/ t2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)2 a$ {1 ^% t3 M$ w. O6 Z4 V

1 i4 O/ Y! V) k# nA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)3 G8 s- }/ B" l" k
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A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去, f" F6 P$ g5 W/ V
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)- y/ X& ~5 Y2 N

. ~7 c) m" |) Y$ e5 E4 ]4 @6 RA= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好% M3 K4 t/ L8 r; }% u  s  x  z
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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