×
Array
(
[fid] => 6728
[description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!
[password] =>
[icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 0
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 1
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
[fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] => 1)发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币,回贴+10华小分
2)Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖,Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4)转帖请在主题上标明
5)禁止发布与本版块无关的主题(违反,帖子转移到相关版块,并扣50经验)
6)禁止回复与主题无关的帖子(违反,帖子删除,并扣10经验)
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则
[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
[139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询
)
[icons] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法
[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[sort] => 0
[orderby] => 2
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 5
[imagewidth] => 200
[imageheight] => 150
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 900
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6831
[type] => forum
[name] => 体育知识讲座
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 5
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 2735
[posts] => 23139
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 113
[oldrank] => 114
[lastpost] => 125127 升降盘理论 1741350473 france89
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 271 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
7 v j3 ~8 D: {1 f( z2 Q9 L( B4 s5 k3 T. ~" `. r6 g
5 {5 q1 j- s* |& v, A* ^
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率# w- s7 j3 F( t" f
/ _1 x. x& w ~7 E0 f
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
' a `" t4 H$ ^( N# Z0 O& S, q$ P. W1 l! G
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% . ~3 n+ c+ f# X5 `
+ O: Z d! W9 I+ F2 V& g
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
" _* A" O$ g+ e3 N' j. z& _: p* _
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)6 w: `6 Z m; N1 [. v
- p! W+ c9 s5 z$ T0 V
8 o% A; M/ q/ M1 L以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?/ T: X2 F9 ]* w1 n: P* U5 p
) u* h; m' J# |% P/ x {
1 G7 r: G. J; Q( b% Z盈利可能性
! }; {6 f: g/ M# E8 d, @, R0 a% C. z! b4 l, F0 C' X5 O
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
0 j }7 W+ T% e* F* C$ [, V$ X5 w% s5 M7 S6 B
增值
8 @0 `9 {2 _, G" D& x) b! x @: P; D
" Y3 T3 Z6 T6 V3 e/ K许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。5 d9 V4 x) K6 v% w3 ^5 t& y* q; Q
" J; ?9 @% N' h0 ]5 O6 [. v
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?; k7 T" a! y# j2 }4 y! z+ N
1 L1 [ G+ `* n t, @8 ta) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
# v# M' U: {# w( j3 y+ B; L
* z! Y/ B. p" J ]& y A, D正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
1 Y; v" w e8 @# I
! p0 y9 p' ^& Z0 K40%的机会你会收到150元的利润1 H$ l) h+ w! {/ K" B4 Q2 E
60%的机会你会一无所有
; i2 B8 f0 P5 Y3 [+ G; V预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 ) ~; e! p0 x: h; d$ r( }% a
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
s. H! T) L& z0 o* O5 _4 B: h. ` p9 `% |2 B% _/ D. t
增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
- ?5 @) z& P2 e7 `% Q0 z! w6 c
$ ~9 F0 ?# \6 l/ \+ n基于增值的投注
: ]) E$ h) Y. ?9 S8 g$ E$ p
* b8 w+ k2 |; ]凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
7 V* F$ z3 T+ t
6 |/ a! G+ q! M4 L4 M6 L公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)0 Q/ P( c/ {: y' ?8 P/ z
9 E/ ]# Y. b* m& O/ J$ D% o9 O
A=博彩资金, T3 R) l$ o6 N+ w9 |. s! ~
P=获胜机会
. {4 g7 q8 @" q: l7 KO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
% k& X0 K5 g- s& W6 p7 ~4 I) B/ T: i& _% c, b9 G
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
6 s5 F* U6 e/ [8 ]5 B- f6 d
! J( I- g1 {; L! T; v. R好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
2 @- V; A) T/ Q* |8 k" Z
. y0 E4 p6 x5 o+ I0 I$ h* I1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)& b/ a* ~6 Y( S6 I; v( k8 U* ?7 R
/ ^( Q! V2 O4 W9 `
A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5): N( Q2 k, U' S8 e
7 }3 K3 T9 }' i1 T$ J3 x0 N/ Q3 J! h. m
A=0
* _! t# C/ p. b/ ?8 f0 C f8 I) X: R
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
! y2 H# u+ s5 Q! B& l: W0 N0 h
4 r% \$ Y; V6 o4 f/ t2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)2 a$ {1 ^% t3 M$ w. O6 Z4 V
1 i4 O/ Y! V) k# nA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)3 G8 s- }/ B" l" k
; O2 _ k2 U9 \5 H
A=0.1
4 \# P/ k: `" e, {; \& K6 k6 }" j m6 J4 H6 H
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去, f" F6 P$ g5 W/ V
: D: L+ B) S9 E: R/ i
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
2 g0 L) g9 J2 P) }- ?' N' G0 F$ [3 ?, K1 r1 b4 x
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)- y/ X& ~5 Y2 N
. ~7 c) m" |) Y$ e5 E4 ]4 @6 RA= -0.2
& N$ x$ z, l0 ^5 F0 R) r+ E; w( I$ v/ ~3 b1 T0 i
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好% M3 K4 t/ L8 r; }% u s x z
: a* f- ~6 `$ A* R
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 968 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 800 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 7136 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4235 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|