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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘6 I" ~4 L3 K0 J1 z E
1 p6 o, [6 W7 {& [) X& s7 h- A
初盘高水,豪门要防冷
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2 {9 K0 O) O+ Z8 b
4 j* K6 n: K+ k/ R* y 09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
! q4 q' R& D$ w% }1 f+ ~. D1 z 英超主队
# v/ o1 p, H) m# Q( C% o 胜:11场 79%7 ]2 H1 I% t8 X! ]5 W, }
平:2场 14%7 C: m) b8 ?' T' V7 o
负:1场 7%; Z8 x7 n8 C9 S# T
6 I. j+ @ N! u+ }1 } 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。
& p, \' i. X) X! p' W$ ?/ f 9 x' i4 |( ^6 v6 M1 t0 @
一、初盘阶段; x2 K2 o& O' s1 d4 E2 X, Y: Q
! R. F6 g( q" y' {$ y" u2 h 具体到水位如下:
# s5 C9 e- ~6 _5 ]2 K. I9 Q" e 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
0 c1 @. ]1 u; S$ M 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平; V; m9 \4 K4 }! U/ s% M
初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平8 P9 r; |; k6 N- V( j
1 [+ G. ]2 {6 b2 I: F 分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:+ O1 d" N( n. ?( \' D% X: K/ E6 n" ?
1 F( }2 D# M- b0 F9 J* x: R& @( }% G 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00' L3 F, p5 D4 T4 `1 g3 Y8 z, U
热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02; F7 {. y3 F2 p. p% O
热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
; V8 Y# {% k# c1 c7 g0 R
- m0 X' e8 I' i2 S$ ~& _8 O 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。' n5 Y' X8 T# w% g2 W
初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
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; c! U* H8 C+ s7 H 二、临场阶段5 R! L) K/ N! M. J
" f. F# m3 }9 }) \% x F/ [2 q" j) ? 具体到盘口如下:
4 H! Y4 v# |6 O 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜+ s4 B1 o% e& ^5 ?) N' J: @% b0 q
临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平1 K$ k( ~( A) d
分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
# L( u g6 h! d) C0 `& [4 U
, r- x, B6 T- A( B2 B 热刺VS伯恩利
, B* a# D8 W- n! l5 C& { 初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00& n" O5 M4 f4 u8 I9 L
终盘:0.77球半1.092 d3 T! C6 Q. W9 F
! e7 ~/ \+ O. x7 Z! u# |- \; _ d
临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。
$ m# H; P3 q$ F2 u1 J 4 m( n _) D, l# |
三、球队表现& e" A3 h& Q% M
5 y+ ~; r7 m/ B. N8 S+ ?8 D! d 在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
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v* Z6 s( o; V- O# q8 L 四、投注要点
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/ i# G1 x" V/ s, t5 j2 G, _5 M 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
6 C# F. R) {. Y! H6 j" z6 p6 z+ J 要点2:初盘中水,重点防平
+ w: c9 N2 U G i% c" C 要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能! ~+ L9 x; p# k& }8 J. [) F) M
要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
. e& l- b7 C) F/ \8 H: u 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
/ ]( O9 F$ i J 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任5 a# p" M9 E% F6 j% ?/ N' I
要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
- d4 X# c" N3 }
8 }7 q, B3 U8 Z: G: [! @/ g# K 对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
N' w% x: C) U! O& H, [ 对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方
* H1 l5 v. {+ ~3 P# j 面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。$ {6 u& V6 r Z' U9 F( K
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