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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
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9 Q! \+ ~( ^$ z4 l: S( `6 Y: ^3 Z 平手中水,主队有利9 D1 n/ [3 }* `
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
# u6 O4 X% {! e# X( @6 f 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:6 i3 I) L3 _; @3 ?0 b. V
英超主队
& V2 i8 h( }; {* l0 m 胜:13场 48%
# ?2 V: a" U8 ~. X0 D6 O7 j, ^ 平:5场 17%
8 Y9 W! l- V% R' `9 G 负:9场 35%
5 X9 r T+ i0 q1 i3 s9 I) N { 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。+ {& c# D" q: _' D" z9 l) r. T; B
& t' K x& N& E! ?4 Z 一、初盘阶段
. U, F0 J( o. E ?# Q 具体到水位如下:
- g8 l/ \$ a8 M0 _4 ~: V 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
8 T: \7 i+ c, l/ _' d5 F 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负5 I$ D8 f9 n7 _# _
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负8 d$ ^# v; b. s
( u- ]( S# A3 U' w7 _ ?
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
i) J/ L+ W$ u5 z) G4 V3 ` 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
. B: E7 F7 E. c# i5 S I 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。' l: G* V2 {3 W' x' {4 B* s8 u
/ Z# Q @+ S5 R7 b' z W 二、临场阶段
, O4 g6 E( ~/ @/ D
/ C2 L J* h! h* h! ^# L 具体到变盘和水位如下:) M: Y2 p- z# @
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负+ l% S4 s6 P3 J5 j5 V$ H+ @9 X$ f
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
) T* }2 u& D$ ?6 d 0 W7 P. V2 ~! E7 E2 t- F! ?
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。. {1 ?" ?2 e) Q- L
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
% i% ^5 s& w& u& U6 g' V' d
% x# t: r+ ^- m7 l4 G _7 s) V 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿; w! Q3 x+ H8 V8 Z' {7 z E4 F
初盘:0.82平手1.04
_, I3 ]3 ]5 S2 m. X 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.857 {& o+ g; J j
( X7 b7 i) W4 T5 ]/ Q3 K8 s
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
# i4 b/ p, `& K- X( O" s 初盘:0.76平手1.10
( \/ M9 G. m4 V/ P 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
8 U ?1 ~4 T4 ~8 T$ q' Y' l! C 5 t& k0 e$ @- T1 M9 {* P
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技2 g. b$ t3 E1 h% y7 L
初盘:0.82平手1.041 d- i/ q) R: O! F+ `" r
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
( J- k- Y/ f1 P) m 4 W0 ^) y9 X: s# {8 z3 t
伯恩利2-1西汉姆
4 y7 x: g/ J6 j! i 初盘:0.88平手0.98
( f" W2 D1 F- D% B 终盘:1.12平/半0.74! ~9 x4 K w. q$ }: y. }1 C
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。& Z# l6 u+ {4 ?* J4 Y+ k5 `
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。! `" _# Q# A9 [! {! X6 z
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。5 H \* I2 f! }) H# |- ?) Q
" `& G/ d- k r- \) m 三、球队表现0 M* u2 K0 ~- d" A
( Y7 q" r9 I. A1 z, j* ? 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
# f5 X% d( I# }2 z9 e7 s # ^/ q2 N1 N1 _
四、投注要点
, M$ C' W# X- F) t4 m( M 要点1:平手中水、主多不败3 W+ U/ _/ n V, a$ y
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
1 T3 Q2 d1 Q( ]: M: i+ ^! d, d 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败. g# P& g4 F6 s+ ~: i4 `
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大$ |. ?/ x0 K8 x- A% s R
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任2 p0 ^9 L# t* J% J
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大6 z5 m4 V7 k, J( X
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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