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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘$ _. u$ T, a0 @2 x' h% G
* _& v# U+ K* \
平手中水,主队有利2 ^% l1 i8 |0 M- a; G" `4 t
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
* P# i. D) n" E6 Y+ j 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
4 F1 Q3 u0 U5 a0 ^ | 英超主队0 `3 Q9 g! z/ F( w" v
胜:13场 48%2 F6 b/ x' O) J. q
平:5场 17%/ m/ R+ ]# }. D. c8 K4 K5 x
负:9场 35%
+ I2 d. h2 \2 t9 v5 {: _1 ~1 h 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。 p# Y! P" [* D8 k3 X3 G( a! ^0 G
0 t5 }$ t2 N5 W7 h
一、初盘阶段4 q. }6 H0 F; P3 h, V @2 R. X8 g
具体到水位如下:4 d1 W5 @+ f3 Q5 }* ~; Y
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负4 S& e4 j9 u1 d- h t0 a
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负6 n+ Q$ ?7 N4 `
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
6 ~, v) U3 e% q2 @/ A# A6 I
0 J" h4 u D W8 [ 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。; i- c6 o. ~/ o, I" t
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。; S3 `1 I0 Q: p* u1 P: r' \8 z$ l
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。1 |- k' ? G8 b2 f0 J9 y
+ {! b+ `$ `1 a* Q 二、临场阶段/ T# _, L, h! q' N
, I _* }' M' E3 R 具体到变盘和水位如下:0 a6 d* U1 E; {9 W
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
9 I3 K8 Z3 {. m% ~" W! }# ], u 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
8 \$ O' P f$ E3 F/ J- B# W - m+ m/ O0 \: G7 O" j
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
# z5 m( o( D: g& L6 X" y |2 g 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:: j% n; y8 D5 Y
6 I2 f% f! ^1 t0 x
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
3 }0 {$ i% `6 K+ n9 ]6 Z: m4 w& v 初盘:0.82平手1.04( o& Z8 b( \* \, L3 u" l
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85$ ?5 m: S& ]6 C) J5 r
& b, Z# v9 p& t 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
4 V( _ _! D' [/ T 初盘:0.76平手1.10
) d) Z; o9 F6 a& f8 m3 b' _ 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
: Q$ N) c+ M( B; T9 [
: A) A' w( d( X 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技- W4 t0 g5 @2 Q: a
初盘:0.82平手1.04( |4 l/ h4 U3 F# T3 p6 V {
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98/ T4 z" d$ p) ?
; Q2 r: n y: O4 S
伯恩利2-1西汉姆8 [. U" R% O1 u! ?0 m8 k: L
初盘:0.88平手0.98( q, O4 @- n/ H0 r4 i4 {
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
, a& n; o" T; o& v; G' H 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。( j3 m" u ]* y5 R S
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。" G( s& I7 J$ S
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。' e( f! a) }4 ~3 |( Z
7 K: v0 l: X: x \5 t& Z) n3 C 三、球队表现$ I; C7 T C$ A& E/ H. T. \
3 f$ l7 C1 S# a; A
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
' s. z) z% E2 c9 e& V7 d0 o/ v2 f4 w , j1 _- e d8 U' }- T% }) \7 S
四、投注要点! N0 O/ d0 y! h4 s2 m
要点1:平手中水、主多不败! s( d6 v1 u; d3 F1 Z9 T5 s
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
: e0 k" x1 [" e# u$ S1 k 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
9 s' B/ r: d. a' y, ]4 L7 P! b6 o1 }3 \ 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大% n1 D- f0 H' N: A, Y4 y8 b
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任; M- l. J& y6 n" p
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大9 X8 N4 a3 ]$ i3 \# U
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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