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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


* e2 A* B2 C) V6 P6 H4 v賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類: J* L3 ^% i9 \" m
10A234567895 C7 v6 U* @; ?5 K) @# W6 u
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.1593 Y2 W3 p/ r; a
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146+ E; D7 g$ c6 ^) L- J/ I, U
-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
& \3 K1 a/ T" M; I- y-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.1200 n5 ~; D. R$ S& R! K( R4 k6 g. K
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.1084 w% s  ~6 X8 B7 u9 q% m9 e
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
; ]4 F+ X8 y1 L  ?-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.0858 T( |% V% v' ^4 y5 n" B
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
. c9 n7 ^3 |, N9 s! x3 G0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
; p+ O' P' d. ^4 y! x( B. b1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
4 X/ m, s; }6 J2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045+ e( J5 P3 U- k" Z* w# V
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
" ]& V# g! F1 T5 o/ T( k4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
/ [9 t& @) }: Q, s) y8 ?5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
) z8 [( |  `* ?6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013% }( `2 f9 [+ v9 u" c& ]
7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007# x6 Y$ l; _2 Y6 y/ e
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001- F' B; _6 B. ]
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
- m; w* }$ j& M: c" V/ z2 K  b! `9 r! i10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
7 {) H, E' b: }6 b( N% K# M11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.9887 g+ J4 b0 n  F5 j/ t1 K* o, |
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
7 d" J% d* |3 P, k8 k13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
7 t; \5 Y4 I0 I7 f/ ^14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.9806 T3 U4 J5 }0 ]
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
6 X+ b2 \0 n  T8 |& G0 v8 _( A, @# @16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979+ F# I- M8 n7 o0 ]7 A$ n) B
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
, g& F# T4 ^5 P& {9 S, Z4 U18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979
% R: ^2 d# r1 \) q19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
* l  ^0 r$ [* b20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983, @  o4 z& o4 j
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986
& p$ u; g8 s1 Z2 B2 Z: ]% M! u22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
  C# ~+ m/ N! d( h$ o0 o# ~2 s23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
5 x2 `6 ?3 W  O8 |; {6 H24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997* _* x# Q; V( p& |9 h
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.0025 T+ B1 w. [6 r% p! w. F+ @& ~

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


& l! }$ h1 K1 ?0 b& f% H! |. @' z表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類! ~! a$ u2 _" t8 s. y
10A23456789, S1 t, B3 S* v) i
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
8 I' p- u" j# `$ O-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.0821 S% h1 K9 c  }1 K5 b- Z
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069% ]! j4 U  q2 f1 L
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056; j3 u9 s8 F" h/ j
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.0445 b8 y+ a  |1 I' i" z9 \
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.0325 K. ]) U9 l) s' X; }2 ?) D2 u
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
$ D4 L& m( _! h- g+ @2 f- I-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010' y  p' j! g& \/ l1 z! E
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
! C& R0 ~; r/ a; C1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010: x; l0 ~+ i3 j6 z; p) w1 f; T
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.0192 T6 C6 N' G  f! Z: d1 U, j
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
7 J$ g# o- v0 N" U; W/ ?- _) V4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036- ]7 n6 n, e3 p" l- z. a- v
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044; N' @3 P, w* [4 U" |
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
$ a* ^" a  G+ L* H; L7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057* L& P9 E  Z' q, J) d
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063
4 B. d0 ~' p' L; v  I9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068, U8 u, f- R9 }% B; H* Z4 x' _
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072& [  P6 ^$ E2 P- S' y; q7 a8 b5 f2 a
11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
$ z2 j' }* P8 C6 `( y12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
3 [" I5 [% O8 Z  x, Z7 E/ N( P3 }13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
. a- `/ G0 e  \14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
* M  _/ ~! X8 O15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
: I) S* w, s% Z2 j# c& e16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
6 N: x6 Y# {# t$ A( b/ L. J. l17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085- q8 H1 Q7 ^1 I: n. H
18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
8 L4 B+ ~' x3 `9 D$ u7 ]4 {19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
8 ^: }0 ], {, R1 ~1 g3 y3 c20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
! F0 _, A  ]2 |8 ]( y21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
! y7 Z; `! m# p8 h! T4 }$ {0 z" o22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
  u( G. T- Y% |+ J! z. T5 C1 }6 b$ e23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.0719 d( g, i5 E- A- h8 N8 B1 `
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067& B5 h+ `: q( h+ t6 _
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062% q$ r8 ?' o% i. j' g3 ]

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

( d" Z) y% P6 n
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類9 `& ^% g2 `- Q! z+ A' {
10A23456789& T! o% Q. K- `  C) g9 g" Y7 ]
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
; L% h) y( F3 Q% B( b0 m-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
) n( N1 J, \3 r5 y1 t/ i-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
& J- n; L' T6 U$ N* A-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.1666 p, n, `$ Z1 u# T- K. Z; a
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180' P# @. t1 i+ ^* L/ F
-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
/ s0 b, D; |7 D; j7 m: w6 U! h-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205( g' e) {+ Y9 r
-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217: {; {. ]0 l8 [/ f
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228& L, u- D. D" X; v' \' F& N
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.2391 u8 U' j# q! ~
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.2495 O. q6 S! W5 Y5 P/ @
3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
5 U9 a0 M) O& s/ b) g# [7 N7 Z4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266; p; U$ Y  X6 ~. J& x' [& @( k
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274$ Y) }" @) H$ M! p
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281: y% k# ?+ \, [7 a& X! B+ E4 R" @
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
+ Z  x/ w( p9 ?6 W% p1 f8 M8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293: g) W( K; v2 @: c
9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298, B$ R9 o" N2 [4 a4 g  i+ c; [
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
; G3 k, Y$ S6 V+ q" v11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306- o! ]6 k0 q% r7 o& W; C: S
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.3080 b' b6 i* L' T3 E8 s7 ]$ @2 d/ \0 P
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310. L4 v5 i, W# L% H
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
& [3 f: w. X( }7 C+ n  X" q15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
5 ^5 s& \# E% J8 h1 j16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
. k  o. n& Y) {' Y: N, B& V17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
7 {4 |6 C! D8 F! E5 n18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.3082 E4 g1 B) D/ D$ u8 w
19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
+ N) b1 ?) u- j/ o" b' K# \$ h20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
& `9 [* M1 [9 R. W8 H' `21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
% z" `/ n/ H/ \! `9 v' c2 m22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292% B- r4 n; A) p: W( G. m# {0 e
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
8 B& N. V# I" A$ ^24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279" N4 D9 w6 `+ V
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.2725 Z( f9 x+ }, y# r! c

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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