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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。' a& O% o6 i2 G7 y" ~; o7 R; e
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
% G: l! s# i2 M0 t+ P# H! G3 v2 F4 i9 {7 D. x7 O
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?0 A ?) D0 a) f3 N3 Z+ a% V
" {" c' T. O1 n% R- z; z7 i
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)0 P; s/ L/ }7 d+ h/ c! `
9 P" v4 V5 s" M# X) ~* }1 G: y/ x3 H
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?$ V9 N' T# c5 w" W. B4 O
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盈利可能性2 Q8 d# D1 _7 L5 E- y; J: R* @
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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; }( r0 a- ?' _. U( f5 P许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?& G4 A/ } } I* j h8 V1 \
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
9 D% Z# A) [$ }$ }7 S- D" \% j( h' ? @( ~: W
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么- |: V/ T. M, T4 b( i' f* o" p
( L/ n2 y0 y6 H6 {40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
- l$ I3 ^( p* [$ e4 M; g9 y60%的机会你会一无所有
" i0 \. _. \& i& B% @* c预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 " ^- s+ X* O: K1 i
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。, Q, j) ~: ]& I0 D& |8 y- _
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。. `. T) S- H) Z# d& N+ x
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基于增值的投注: _/ p: q/ z6 Z5 d6 |7 Z H
5 ^; o0 Z% T: d9 P凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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* B* S& ^6 A1 t5 c4 F* G公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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* Q, n3 q3 H) |& d1 N: M, GA=博彩资金
1 e: k, s |9 d7 I/ A8 U% h0 g. PP=获胜机会4 c3 A- O3 D+ M0 r6 I3 C
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。/ V: ?* ^, c' I3 X
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。( m6 ]% f: l4 v$ T/ K/ E' Y
; H' E O; q& k _* B. J2 I* E1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5); b8 o. G, U8 x: v1 @! q9 ?/ g
/ l3 U2 Z% T' W8 }7 p% S R5 u7 FA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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; f5 c! [3 D+ e: S& t7 X% wA=0% @" g( m; ~+ F+ F
3 W6 \7 U4 o) d5 P; L' p: S结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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/ X5 C) a, \" A. |2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)6 l" [1 K# {: v# v4 w
: w# i& a7 x# t, r/ LA=0.1+ L! `8 M H9 `/ Q! m8 m. x/ \, v. u
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去2 u @8 ^2 R- {2 s( D+ }
5 d& v# G E' M& V6 w3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2); G- N) M3 E1 y* z
& n6 p5 y# }$ w. [# l/ IA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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: Z; n: h3 k9 T' e/ ?! G$ [) PA= -0.2
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6 S ?3 I4 Q8 T4 h9 L& R: L结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好# i. }, k. m) O
" `2 p4 u1 E! w+ {( E4 C( L4 A第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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