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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。' t4 T! N/ m8 Q- @' e
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率+ _) {! }9 {$ F5 o7 |8 p; E
; a2 {) ?3 @& Q/ K6 X" l' g1 V+ e以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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( T- D3 b. X0 k9 {皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ' t5 U" o7 i( b1 Y1 l$ T" a( ?
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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4 `0 S* j& M* n/ R, }3 ~ ^答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)7 `' o, Q0 D4 N4 b" z
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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) D. ]1 D* Z# o: u+ J" k0 Z! s3 z盈利可能性. ]' ~ i. _& ]3 X6 r
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。* u) h) e) b! o. r! u, G
! |& F5 E8 C" s9 m/ m增值& e' ^; c2 a, D! V
% ?0 Q; ~$ V3 o E( g! X许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。3 d& q, l& K. U1 A2 c
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?/ a7 |, v1 q# Z8 K P: b
: k7 l' C; H3 X1 b0 ]a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 I) y2 Q6 c! }3 Y. i3 X
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
# q @4 t; }6 e5 Y* F; N60%的机会你会一无所有; c; o, b. r2 l
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
p4 K$ h) h7 Z& D+ f; n" m5 B/ N7 F由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。* n8 N/ ^5 X- T
+ N" s: t4 b* b1 n; e! \基于增值的投注5 |' H& |" M7 E9 t3 y4 M; r$ x
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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& b i, x# p4 |3 h+ b6 K公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)) I r. o3 C+ @$ x; [
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A=博彩资金
" f8 S7 v2 m" j: Y7 pP=获胜机会5 y9 |; }) X+ g- Y& [& ]7 z
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)+ O- p& z9 J0 g @' o/ t
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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6 b5 D7 m4 c6 |0 S! v; L好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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" F1 y b) ^1 ?* o. B1 n) d# L8 X1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)5 k. P( f( E6 @6 c' E- M
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A=0
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* W% @6 Z+ W* l7 \' g. V8 P结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢; I: T% Q- L: @
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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$ E) I4 }) d% }% v$ sA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1 |* D5 x3 V( v( {1 @9 ]6 F% T, s
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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& R9 U1 [5 Z5 r7 ]. W* s1 G3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)0 ]5 Y- s1 y5 u* m# u3 X5 }- y$ U
0 ]8 t. _% a6 j. D# A7 ]( E4 EA= -0.2 ) F& A: o" g: T* ?3 X, r/ Q& S
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好% ~& E; P# ~- o' n# k9 ^+ u
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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