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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘: M1 g, H5 c+ i0 `, f
6 N; z2 v, ]* R) z% x: r
平手中水,主队有利: e3 |4 l4 \! Z. h
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
0 H: {2 E) k- i8 e 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
. Q4 S* B) b; Y. [ 英超主队+ e* j7 f" Y: q
胜:13场 48%$ k- s( |9 i3 M. x0 T# N x2 i# `# Z0 P
平:5场 17%* i4 O1 g* J' @- m2 B4 z
负:9场 35%7 h$ ? w2 D5 {, o4 i
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
5 r' [! a1 O0 Y) P * z4 U6 p; m D; }1 A Y& V% a
一、初盘阶段
9 w7 z7 T/ }! O6 s! y 具体到水位如下:2 n; u' d6 D& N" m
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
$ d3 ?3 w% G+ e! l0 T& u; K, s% ? 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
' W; x/ ]( w% \ 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
% I6 r! o% _; N8 V) E+ v" a" n3 Z
; L* ^% e" u @& f( G4 R1 ~! P 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
& ^3 S" H) z3 m5 w2 w) m* Y 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
1 u4 I$ m# A$ {# ^* | 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
+ N' a- U4 K' W! O& g & v# r6 B/ o( h, b1 E( K4 U# O
二、临场阶段9 @. \! s \5 m) n6 e
2 ?; ~$ w; S' N' e6 W: A1 J5 k 具体到变盘和水位如下:4 F2 q. {5 I$ y( ?6 n5 `7 E! T+ S
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
5 k- G. ^/ I8 H/ m8 }/ [ 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负' Z" `2 F. c/ A a7 I
; g, p: k: D1 i; H2 s p4 e& h) m/ C2 y 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。' @7 X4 Z1 m/ X
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
4 _, j" b0 k4 S2 X Q9 `3 z
3 e: `3 C4 h! v* V6 z2 M 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿3 P% o1 h0 _8 [' F
初盘:0.82平手1.04- l( ?9 y: f3 X4 k# i
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
* w3 T. z$ j8 s" n5 s9 M, Q : B' n: z S; k+ K8 Q+ ]" `
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
4 P" h( z" k& b! n3 H 初盘:0.76平手1.105 T D N. K' X/ y1 @) s
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91, y, [+ ]; z% k' G
8 `8 [% l; J3 `& q; C
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技3 I x- d' I' z: o4 g; Y
初盘:0.82平手1.04. V( u5 c. l' ^
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
% Y+ O, p+ ^% O
- {% V8 c/ |" I6 {9 M3 E+ m/ @( [+ T 伯恩利2-1西汉姆
" V G$ w4 \5 _) M8 t 初盘:0.88平手0.98
; V, ]2 s$ ^: L$ Y4 |6 T2 c3 p) b 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
% n2 Y7 P- ~$ v) O 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。1 H- }% g2 r5 [. e5 r+ H
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
! k+ I# I+ Y: \) }, p 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
" t" U* V& I/ e+ j8 `( l - O4 F& h- ~1 u! ?3 r* e
三、球队表现
8 e+ c e+ n. k- J6 t3 g0 F 7 `8 `& [3 G8 \$ L' V8 `! W
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。0 L. q8 D( s( d5 n1 e
* W& L& _# X% V! m( h 四、投注要点" |) f- C& C# n; n
要点1:平手中水、主多不败 L5 K; j- ^" x$ \0 I- u7 z2 b' G% m
要点2:平手降盘、走两头' G. h ~* X* G/ M
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
7 s% d5 D9 c- M$ N$ [ 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大5 U. y) q \/ R* M
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
. D9 q+ `. U! P8 _' J4 U" | 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大4 A( s6 N, _! Q B2 Y* d9 z7 A
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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