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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘1 ~6 L9 ]1 z. \9 K) ^
     ! q+ m9 Q* o( B& B; z. b0 E
     平手中水,主队有利
( W3 c" Z0 y) b" \! |9 K     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
, E  J/ c0 s) D7 Y: |# B4 i     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
9 [# T) \, f, `! |9 H     英超主队1 m0 J2 e" G/ I; k
     胜:13场 48%9 w0 l! J) q3 P) {
     平:5场 17%# {. j$ I- H! v" D. k7 I0 {
     负:9场 35%) a- v& ^, d+ U7 t% L  w
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
2 q; l; p) R" ~4 ~# M/ D" u# m: e     
$ w* S0 B( P/ G: v     一、初盘阶段  E0 ~( v8 |& D4 h
     具体到水位如下:
/ f( U. s" l! N7 e     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
$ ]4 x0 d) |% S     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
9 s) I1 J; [, M* L( c     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负7 a) R$ N( A+ v
     
5 s( J( O( N& `& {     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
9 m& p' ~+ t/ `     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
2 y/ l2 S: W2 \# m, W     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。2 D0 L' W1 R2 u7 Y) W2 a! f
     4 |$ ^& K& c8 W: o  y
     二、临场阶段; f( O: y* w9 Z2 p
     5 m: d: K* F0 z' I. d8 u0 |
     具体到变盘和水位如下:
+ F' E2 h+ a  ^- P- j1 |/ Z, X     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
! M% E2 `/ I- l; H- v2 p     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负* B* M8 w5 ~2 W' Q
     6 Y" N  [0 `5 d; K5 X4 W
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
/ G9 X+ Z6 M0 z5 z- k     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
9 O+ n3 j: F  H, J     - Q; Q8 I% @# e$ m  W3 T
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
; U: p6 x* u" E/ o     初盘:0.82平手1.043 q3 X  ?& [6 a" C# Z4 _4 c
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
6 ]6 e* Z/ f7 d% a     % e5 m' j/ t# _4 K' W1 z) @4 ~" _
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆9 }, ]) `' s/ q  a& ]) `
     初盘:0.76平手1.10; [- U6 K( y1 `& b4 L- g
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.910 R3 j$ s  E7 \  ?
     
3 ?% o" ~& D& _, P- p3 q     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技3 ?: l. X" }8 f& [" e" d
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
! V& P' K" r% @" x$ e     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.981 _: F  G9 F, J; ~- I4 j9 K
     % c* ?3 v7 v6 {* f& i% S
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆' |! |; k/ Q$ B. C* V4 e2 j
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
; `; f8 a" `) S4 A8 S/ @     终盘:1.12平/半0.74% I' ]! c0 B0 U3 ]/ P* G, m3 e  _4 S
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
  A  J* u3 B7 d5 s+ H     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
% t4 K( g. l. M. _     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
$ r  q" y9 D" u2 X     
; T4 N$ P& G; C# I. o  V     三、球队表现
' y& U4 x; E2 {& V# A& [7 @5 @     ( g. c% f6 C( D9 G: W9 Q8 H$ O
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
% S4 ]2 y& d% d& f     ' G& [; ?9 j  s6 G8 j1 |) J" R
     四、投注要点
1 [/ E8 [0 K- v8 |# a5 x3 R5 ]     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
6 u0 }6 `( `) Y1 S( T     要点2:平手降盘、走两头- n; @4 j1 }- E$ i* C: r+ y
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败4 Y6 b5 T5 {; P+ [1 R: |$ m; B" z
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大  X4 y/ x" _% A/ y7 Z8 S; h
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
+ m: E9 j2 T) i& o# f& A4 U- s7 z9 M     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
, ~& u" l. g7 N# ~/ f% Q$ S     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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