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[1754] => 虚拟币存提
[1755] => 交易所
[1655] => 虚拟币资讯
[1756] => 银行卡
[1757] => 第三方支付
[1760] => 币圈大佬
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[lastpost] => 2770856 比特币价格预测:摩根大通预测未来比特币将上涨 40%(转) 1759427428 jackcool1011
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上次分享了第一篇,这次继续来分享第二篇。 3 A m" e8 T. E& z- r% Q
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5. 废话的不对称原则
5 [' m$ \0 v8 y& n+ E$ G反驳废话所需的能量比产生废话要大一个数量级。
+ S6 i) u/ U1 d+ T h# _. H4 n" J9 U$ U+ B
回想: 写 luna 的优点=成千的点赞。
7 _+ A" `( a; o; \% M7 `2 G% n2 ]( M( n8 ?7 ^
写 luna 的缺点=无数的敌人和谩骂。
# R2 f: c' Y, m; {: Z! p1 g7 L" l D/ \$ d
每个周期,都会有邪教类型的项目,人们无视核心,只因利益一致而拼死维护。; g/ C* n1 Q" P6 K# U
, Q8 k9 s8 T/ @+ A而对抗它们需要太多的精力。3 `: N- x r7 Q( b1 q& G* P
6 O1 p2 P) k6 L: \( H; \8 m% l# x9 O
6.风险不可知原则(黑天鹅)
) C/ ~' P) S% `8 {$ x" O5 Z6 ?被知道的风险:智能合约漏洞。
. C# u/ P6 c# J0 o
2 a1 n# Z( W1 U( G不可知的风险:911、3箭崩溃等。
8 R! E' }) w5 _( X& h: _
! Z) d8 A3 n6 Q0 p- G# U& d因为不可知的风险一直存在,只有多样化才能防范。! | g, H/ F7 w& ]. ^5 U
+ k; v6 [/ j# M
想象一下罕见事件:
7 R! o. K. `; X8 c5 C
) W4 h: x* i$ F& w& P• 中本聪的钱包苏醒
8 R7 w2 |4 H% U+ ~- v' O8 T5 Q3 ~! v, O* y/ K3 H9 n
• 核打击
0 a6 K7 `# F7 y* I' L/ L
6 y3 C! k* {' M- k/ f9 t我们倾向于低估黑天鹅的影响!5 t& X- H% ]( _- r" p
6 i2 l. w3 W, C0 f7.二八定律+ h' F* Z4 a! ~& m! Y
在币圈:
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8 e/ e, S! Z* b$ N0 M80% 的收入来自 20% 的协议。/ z/ M8 q& ]6 K
' [% s. j) ~; e. g+ @* M4 a6 L
80%的利润被20%的人拿走。
4 d6 [6 Y% `- v* }5 f) D& H8 u E. p$ a) E
我们大多数时候是8,而不是2,时刻警惕这一点。2 a( v7 w% \& M0 {0 `' s8 q. |
5 ?4 w# [; k) Z3 F
8.网络效应
% R! R4 ~5 g2 i4 B产品随着更多用户加入而更有价值。
( I _8 H, u2 P) p; k
9 `# x8 @: _5 n2 g( l2 B2 n" ^想想脸书如果没人使用会有什么价值?7 @% m: g U' z1 |- X4 ?
( h& y, ]% C, Y
一个产品产生了网络效应,就成为了护城河。, L0 `9 q$ e$ Z! Q* M: ]
/ T! x1 n" Q5 |5 b投资时,要考虑什么产品能产生护城河。 往往只有一个产品能获胜。4 T! s9 G/ z' z/ q% |
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