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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。6 u- B7 l1 l. ~1 S* K& L, i$ w
6 D/ ~: u9 s: P+ v/ [$ E# _" Y/ v4 Y
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
5 H! p/ _, F4 E0 _0 K- U8 w/ A6 _0 X( m& G2 ]
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% . ^8 E1 S) ^' B! J% W0 i/ M/ `
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?' x3 d( e# \- B
: x7 I* J- l- e8 c# B, X' N+ H& C
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!), u8 X- I1 K7 b0 @1 |
6 @1 x6 a2 R7 a0 p" w! l7 V- H0 _/ Z. A: e7 P* o$ h N
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?" ^; n$ e. X- y1 [
- k1 F; k, Q) i) D2 R6 S5 A( w( n3 y' W5 z4 z' I) ~
盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。! k/ t6 c" K. o+ e9 W9 R
8 l) X1 D8 M; _: J9 h增值4 o3 W4 r$ T( M, T
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。* U: e: \ E1 a
! Y) i" j* N0 p- H5 `
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
7 s. ^: E h$ t
8 V9 S$ R) ?5 o/ va) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 : @+ J: H$ z6 h1 l0 U% j" w# U7 o
$ L; i7 c; r0 _; i/ v! `! S) a& Y* v+ X
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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4 R6 ~. n8 ^" L/ @40%的机会你会收到150元的利润- ^! W% Y2 A3 D& f/ k$ g
60%的机会你会一无所有5 b5 t5 e8 G6 `6 r
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
{# z4 X; u" Y U! |: J/ |( e由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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+ V w' T# e& {- O2 y增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。4 E$ J+ d. X% h! D# d# |
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基于增值的投注0 T8 d% S5 a5 j& a, j0 J
' `3 `3 \- D5 W2 g+ A0 k$ T
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。- c2 H1 m( S* q, ~3 M
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
% {4 C( ]6 U! i# M4 P0 l G' xP=获胜机会
# A1 c" M& b! }4 D3 b+ cO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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) Q7 z' [4 ?, U1 x0 K% a0 }' @1 R首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。- B; L3 S5 E+ o" y" W" r1 J w9 e' F1 `
; g5 `/ m! L$ W7 w3 a% t; M# [好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
2 ]% |1 o+ l- Y$ t* }4 B8 R( L: Y8 M
3 b: p$ o2 J1 s' x# j1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)9 x; I/ u, k7 A# E3 K3 q
8 ^% {! m0 k: L1 B8 L
A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)& r1 L- H/ J" z# }5 \7 E6 i
8 Y5 W, g% y, n& ` _* |A=0
+ M. C3 B7 \$ K, I# ?9 h
8 a. j `$ S8 n0 d- R5 w结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢# n; ?% z4 S. ^& t; ^
8 |7 M; \& {/ ], G2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)5 ~0 d, ~0 J; x" v+ S
9 L2 I, l! x8 Q5 S- t9 QA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
% D. C6 M* Q9 R' w# l! t) _4 v* F+ U7 i+ S" m0 F7 J# s
A=0.1; ~8 h: s6 o& t) N$ W
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
: l! U4 T! d! { a; I, L2 a, s
' m% ~. Q& |" |1 Z) c4 [3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)0 Q: J" W7 U: q% n0 s* b% a2 U
3 o3 r- x" M( y: |: R( LA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1) L N. C; g: u% O
5 F& {1 K" v1 R! jA= -0.2
3 g$ H% U+ `2 H4 @& b) T
k* [% w) Y; i, l/ }2 d结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好2 U/ E' y* m8 e/ \$ ], x
3 R/ j8 `5 u" I6 {2 A e第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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