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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
- P7 A8 @. w+ `0 L: K
( a" [8 S" C. T" ^0 @/ b 平手中水,主队有利6 o: o0 y+ @( a- Q+ m, O/ E* A
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
& t' w7 N" v. D1 C8 I/ @ 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:6 \6 P# X2 |: Z w! I$ N. k
英超主队) f6 L, h$ v' W% @9 J- }7 f3 Q
胜:13场 48%+ F" ~' A& W% G' C6 J- e8 N: g
平:5场 17%
1 I1 @) \' A& I5 ]( S u 负:9场 35%8 B$ c. M# M6 s4 E
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
6 z6 C+ L) H7 C3 `5 y
- Q+ }7 T- `7 s5 I0 u: |) K 一、初盘阶段& B) P$ k# X; D: O. i
具体到水位如下:) q6 o; n( a* C
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
7 W: a( P: k' J* d6 e6 D 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
* S/ `; |- c0 G. N+ a 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
8 ]7 i' r- v( K& z% Z9 g8 c4 ~1 B
/ t# c) T z4 d9 K# y& f 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。6 F+ ~. x6 C+ r
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
/ U1 O0 I0 ?0 i+ s" @ 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
7 v2 H a* G: b- O+ j! U9 J
* L& X4 k0 D/ k% R- n* q; [ 二、临场阶段9 z5 g4 X+ H4 Z* K* h
% X' ]% K: R/ _% y6 W6 n0 s8 j 具体到变盘和水位如下:
5 p# b7 b: W g" B( }4 \: F 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
. b2 J+ i: \; w8 m5 W 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
- Z% ?. p8 R9 e* |- ^
% J, I+ r0 C% z6 K% R* { 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
- p$ P8 Y' k) M3 }" j 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:- j6 J! {/ a/ j0 U5 T, _) G
, ^: { q& ]% i7 C
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
% Q0 E$ k! I: w, H! l x 初盘:0.82平手1.04
! C6 g) [6 g( n 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.858 ^( n0 z2 R0 P: }
, @: H2 P0 m. ^8 O# ]
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
6 O$ }+ V" @5 [$ C1 u 初盘:0.76平手1.10
1 s: S: C0 R, |( V* A 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
% `/ s+ E" j0 t! N# f6 Y # c7 B9 \' i; Z) Z
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技# e% ~7 E0 p5 x1 S* F4 q! ^) A4 g
初盘:0.82平手1.04
6 P+ a+ V4 e' v* H+ T, y3 B 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98$ Y9 c2 [- Q! h; h. D5 j r4 R! m
/ D. {; M- ?% O* G1 `
伯恩利2-1西汉姆5 u7 v) a$ m2 E" H: M X9 Q# t
初盘:0.88平手0.986 F( r" f9 d+ L, b. l; F1 D8 y& j) y
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
9 V% N$ P9 o5 y! _5 N& ~ 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
3 g( p' z7 d5 _6 G/ M2 i2 S 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
- ~% i; \1 v# r3 L1 A% _( u) Y 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。 Y# _9 P9 T; }+ T
- G& D: Q9 D; l7 b5 b, q( [
三、球队表现2 G7 p9 k( g I# ~! \
, f9 \' I3 o( p# V5 }/ H! Z7 W 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。. t- A _6 H; e
4 b* R9 ?0 U2 H% e 四、投注要点
* {. Q2 m! y9 q, V 要点1:平手中水、主多不败) m& B$ |& s" i/ a: S7 Y+ E# N
要点2:平手降盘、走两头' a# C) k( s* ~# h3 e5 Z5 `, l
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败2 g, F; F D b* ?3 |9 Q$ @
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大7 e* g) q! x( ^
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任9 p" f* Z- b* T" P, o% F
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大3 M" ^* u$ u- N* k& N
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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