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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


7 Q5 v% [, v2 q3 w* t: e5 E3 m. H賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類+ \! k( m3 Y8 B% _$ O1 e* D8 i
10A23456789
+ h. f% f( d1 b6 W-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159% o* P2 Q" @1 V0 ^: v5 L
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
& r, q+ R0 b/ B4 i4 A-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
/ U; |; l7 b9 V- s) L, M3 x-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
( D' h( ?1 `% H5 {( Z-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
& I" v, @( \$ g! \-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096* A9 y+ r" c( x# z2 k% U
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085: @/ o0 Q; L& U5 r! K3 P6 g! L
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
: f% }: \0 i4 o0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
5 l7 m( p" M: N8 K  L: N1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
' t9 Y, F$ f+ i& c2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
* w% o9 T* X8 Z* m( J$ ]; c" v3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.0368 a7 I! t! g( A# h) _; B
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028+ s: Z, Y2 v  Q
5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.0206 o( d: [: Y3 B! M0 B9 P5 P
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
' S3 k: ^( a4 V6 f7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
9 }9 k6 w# W  K9 i8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001$ S" \2 J$ S, b8 ^
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.9961 z0 S- [/ }$ E& e4 U! P
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
; |- x4 h: C' ^" ?5 ?11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
9 @1 l( d, m- t5 q$ Z' X12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.9858 D) A( m! w/ c9 t+ v
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
" Q0 [8 b$ M3 b7 M14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.9803 l9 \6 F( M" r$ ~
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
. W8 F* N0 [7 Z# I2 p! g' Z16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
; n/ d8 \1 s8 z# M9 {6 W17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
* U$ Z3 Q- G! q% H. H9 c; a7 `18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979
' z% a" N$ k0 @1 t" h/ z* k19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
3 ~) {( f& o" u. @! j8 l20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983! a/ d% X& `: W$ R2 h3 Q2 d' v$ A
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986  H# v: d$ b3 t# }) `/ ?
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989. N& z* |# M  t# V
23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.9930 K( l) l7 s$ Q( r+ s
24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
9 G/ B# S9 s; i2 f/ t# `0 a25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002  J) R2 D  V* D+ o2 F8 x

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


* L& I- `! g/ I( G2 o# x表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類/ V! |, W, d" ]8 d
10A23456789
6 F/ A* [; J8 j, T3 G-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
- V$ C7 _, q( y& q-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
, C; h$ c* i: I. [-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069
; z) M  G" y6 D3 B' r7 b- U7 x-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056* j. Y; F+ x& {" m  v7 p" J1 N9 I
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.0443 Y! N4 K5 r9 i8 e- i+ a# u
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
, \' `/ I, L1 N! ~-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
" [( w$ e* m$ v+ }, W-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
# E- q0 o( |, i3 H* ~* ?! F00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
; I  c/ h" P' @9 }1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010/ p$ N8 @( s6 r) m) E& |
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
3 @% B; V4 i6 U! l  @6 m; w3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
( ]2 p. \. K! m; S  |% D& e( |4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036" u7 j! Y9 J$ B( ]% _& _
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.0443 D7 f, h4 g7 L4 J+ `
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051$ j+ F: D( q) s+ K5 F) e; o
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057% u0 W& S) t+ A
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063
8 R  w! o2 o3 @$ ?6 Z2 j9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068# Y+ i2 F$ P- w0 [8 v6 y
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
9 {) t( z9 B4 n5 J. L1 Z4 u5 v( o11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
# C% b; }# m5 a12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079' c" p0 \8 |( g0 ]1 {" r+ C7 T) c* z
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082! W. Q% i- e; C5 c
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
9 d' z: W& {! R6 ?4 Y6 Z& x. b15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
/ k3 ?. D; r: C16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085- c! N: e9 z" Q, L# r
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
7 L1 C! K# Z% F18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.0859 A) }/ _/ b. S6 b9 w5 _3 t, Y4 f
19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
$ @/ }2 r0 L4 [4 Z* ]9 Q) K20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
* j7 Z% u2 p, S7 o' M1 T: t6 p0 _21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078+ P$ ^( ^3 E, ]3 Q# b0 r. A
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
- A9 j, J  z9 O23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
$ {" f7 b  E9 z" h# a24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067$ L' J2 ]/ P3 N  p% U4 y
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062# @% m' F! s- r& U# B

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。


: `/ R% t/ e3 H押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
5 X2 r6 T; |- _4 t/ f( ]) G5 G10A23456789! `: D0 h& K% I
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
. C% p" [2 T. _0 T: o* Q-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
$ S$ f" Y0 U9 \: ]* |-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
: y* P) |$ I0 n% n-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166' R( M( R" A9 O9 }
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
; a; I4 R" N2 z2 _& D6 ^7 K- [-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
# V2 s! C6 y( b/ u-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
4 |  s5 E6 [. `  T2 M-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217
% I7 j+ H2 g" l: \( U0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
, S( t3 c" x9 a7 s) Q5 ?1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
! B! J. n, A; G4 W; v6 y2 P2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
( t: E2 S% T9 K) _" B0 w) ?7 U3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.2580 q8 ~  p3 ~6 L/ w- g% \' l/ m/ C
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
: n9 O# N0 V& ~7 K1 H- R5 J5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.2749 x5 Q4 d  x& ?% \( V" [- c' x/ ?
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281. d! m4 K1 A3 _" v! @
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
% H4 Q" [9 @. a& R7 D8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
: w; g4 \  l( Q6 _- r: ?) X  Z  J9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298( l! E) }+ `( ^9 N1 o- @: |7 b+ L; d
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302/ P5 L: h* C( a8 W' S' j! m
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
( I& d, U8 |/ S! w7 @5 T2 i12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.3089 F- r6 \& Q3 ~8 _8 t
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310& X3 x/ \4 x" L, ^8 B
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
1 [2 c8 c/ D6 U. }) {15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.3119 E) I1 R+ _# W! v/ T7 b
16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
0 K+ X4 s4 Y8 @4 x, B  ~, p: \17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
9 n% `. k. ?9 m7 s# u18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308" h" S# U! Y5 P! Y$ y3 K; @; Z
19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305# o; V  v5 K9 a) ~
20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
( V8 ]1 P$ ]. F+ X21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
1 J  q, W( S$ d2 u& ?1 g3 Y22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.2928 ^$ E% ~* U4 T) g. n
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286" l5 a# |& w9 l% N$ N$ v- B$ ~
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279
6 Q( F' Q! D5 r# e1 P/ B25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272
$ }* u: q+ q' k

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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