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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。2 }& U7 A4 g# k( T% W% P2 Q
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* ]7 _- }+ P1 `% j0 R5 M0 {* I西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率' V' A- o$ W: C- ?# [6 O ?. Z/ x# c
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
5 f2 b, b. B, Q5 \9 K2 ]; q( c" W! q# |9 L1 e) [, G
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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# t( _# w% a" _2 W6 H$ w5 R. n很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)8 B6 @& f* K$ \; u% R8 H7 u5 X
: N* E' b" l/ d% t) W: ]
/ l2 J5 I- W( H6 q以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?' U# i& ]9 J* E q u
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0 C7 K# n- C" X: G8 Q盈利可能性
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+ {" K5 b5 o6 W- j5 i) b对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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4 ?& ~; l( M. h8 ~增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么9 y. M: J' S# \+ m" x Z8 {' h
8 N* o. ^8 I3 V# [! R# W0 L40%的机会你会收到150元的利润; g% s, r4 @7 I: `/ Z7 k5 u
60%的机会你会一无所有% p) B; B8 e9 Q" E* w3 F' z( Y l
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 7 y4 L: s7 Q* q6 b
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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5 E4 ?* P, o. |* w增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。3 t( x+ O. B3 o4 g
# M3 K- P1 E6 B# E4 c基于增值的投注: A& L! z5 @$ c1 u+ O
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)4 i+ c! t& m4 j
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A=博彩资金) {, P% d. ^0 p) N0 }3 p+ j$ F
P=获胜机会7 v* G% Q3 i1 }4 c8 h: K
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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! O: W, _5 P0 Q% ~7 {* s首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。! B" f5 f- t* }& ]* C
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)& W3 L. a: ^* U: Y" b2 o Y
) w/ [& W i; M8 [. ~& t3 ~' OA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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& S t- O9 v: j7 Z7 E& XA=0
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& U5 k# S1 T p0 t! \结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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% J) b. _+ B7 [& \) @2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3). z* }7 U: t7 g @ p# P
! Z% T2 Q6 g6 s2 VA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1' T8 n9 X% Q1 J- l) [# p6 V* K# j
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去% a4 A3 {* r* o8 B$ f+ M& L
6 `/ t2 {: g% I% r1 I# |- V; U3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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3 ]0 O5 N3 u& U- N# \+ qA= -0.2 7 f7 J5 g( I$ e( w' ?& e& G; d& t
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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1 s9 M) @8 @1 Y* Q% D! o. K0 T# F! O第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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