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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
$ u8 Z$ Q# g8 A+ I/ [     ) m5 R' y4 V& x0 y
     平手中水,主队有利3 |( d3 P: I  u1 O* m! Y: s
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
2 b9 ^  K7 k% }! J     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
8 F1 J- S1 r1 l9 E     英超主队
, n: M# j! X+ |, w     胜:13场 48%
% t2 U. n1 j/ \2 Y- m" ~; Z     平:5场 17%4 P2 t' B. ?$ p( r' R
     负:9场 35%
7 R+ v- |! y. S1 ]     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
9 {$ S" S5 ~# L0 Z: h     1 t" ^3 l6 l1 \/ e: F, @
     一、初盘阶段
4 P" T2 `" C5 f1 Q, D% z1 N     具体到水位如下:
5 h) l1 C% b3 i/ Z# W8 U( x' E% o     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负! g8 Y! p: p) h4 {
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
( ?" Z" g' }: E, H6 k' t+ n( [8 P     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
+ q3 ]. R# Z2 _2 ~. Y- d/ b     
/ r$ G2 c" J8 N     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
% n6 s# B3 f6 ~4 s- P     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。! e) @* `+ n4 F9 H% W
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
& W7 D  s, O+ ~     . H  p- z  R/ _' d/ R' {$ {
     二、临场阶段
7 M' ?+ L  I8 O, ~5 c, z' r% f     * Q+ o: F; R, N
     具体到变盘和水位如下:
# O( R/ j/ G( w4 X# _' ]# Q2 w2 ~* [     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负& H1 D$ T' X: j2 I7 T8 U; K
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负* L" n9 o$ f* @. m# |) p
     ; E) x, W- R$ p. O# \0 z
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
* [1 [" i8 z+ L9 j4 E# L2 U     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:* V; ^, `( ?2 S2 l7 O) [
     # c& T  h. e9 D
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
5 @" a+ _4 n7 C4 Q. t% o! Z& k     初盘:0.82平手1.04
* J: z4 C- T" F- |/ f. o; Z  ~     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.856 }2 v* U) W  c" I
     
2 V3 b% F. Y. m: B# z/ |5 X     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
0 j/ {$ ]/ `* g6 b8 _4 O3 j/ m     初盘:0.76平手1.10
5 N4 b6 L" A7 W     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
9 T$ X2 X2 N, [# O$ U7 U$ J) @% x     
- F) B( J$ P6 p& N* Q     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技& s# ^! X* v4 T
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
9 s2 z+ _; p4 z1 a& g- k     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
$ |/ {  V4 h. |* M     
) C, O0 A3 U' X. @( r  I. u' Y/ z     伯恩利2-1西汉姆7 x  \* A+ U# A  s* O$ C7 w% G, k$ n0 G
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
. L; B; a7 @+ G# b( g2 {     终盘:1.12平/半0.74# q: ?% e3 T. c
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。3 Q. Y% \$ r! j  x4 @) o3 m
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
, r  x  {1 k( I9 y# E6 ]( ~     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。3 ?* T9 U4 K8 y* B5 K& y0 F
     
% l& j6 c+ b" s     三、球队表现
# s# U& R+ j( |2 V& B( {     
6 t: M  j5 @7 L6 Y: C% N     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。$ h' }1 v5 u) V( B+ x7 v" z
     ) m# I/ e* S& R. f' i
     四、投注要点
; G7 C1 e# m7 \9 {     要点1:平手中水、主多不败9 E, C! g& H! F) [( Y1 b
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头, l- C* ^, ^" Z8 l) _( F
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
& E4 R. H  Y& E) P     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
* _) d8 r( J7 [: X, [6 {0 o     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任3 A: h9 [# L* R3 q6 }
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
+ p# L/ J6 K9 ]2 G/ s( v* N     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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