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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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/ z0 F- ?0 g/ ^以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:- x A7 i: t, B/ H+ R
" o; T! h, C0 p0 O/ v8 \皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% " @/ f' i# K D0 T! n
% Q2 D0 \: d, p% B, U, n7 c* z: [# h很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?3 K$ w/ K* D ~3 f4 l( K R
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)3 _# w' H0 V& d( J/ s! H: g
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?4 i1 X2 [1 {: x; J/ B3 m8 o& n( u
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盈利可能性
4 r4 s' o0 l/ q }
" c; H4 \, {$ q4 ~* k; K( m对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。/ [' f* P3 S1 C, b6 p" B% L
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增值
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' g' N$ P' a b& i许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。6 ?. U; ]7 ]2 U' I9 h, i
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?7 Q# O/ s* e8 @2 M! S0 a: ?
- W, `. \% y: Z. Ia) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
7 B/ X4 x- f p! Y60%的机会你会一无所有 m* \7 w$ Z* ~$ h) r4 z/ a
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
' S7 i) W6 p7 [4 d3 U2 ^由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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, L0 |4 v C4 d! l基于增值的投注2 b9 s& W* ?2 F- G: l
, p- x/ j4 S5 R! K' }% }# @凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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$ @$ ~9 Y% S9 m# f& p) o公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
2 X& W# r/ P; U- J) @: L& xP=获胜机会2 J7 [3 U$ O& g6 s% o1 {9 U
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。( z; a) \2 n- d! y9 i8 u! {
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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# S# ~8 c$ ]( f' J& PA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)! t$ z0 u8 {! I( P( o: i
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A=0
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" o( M$ N0 G4 [结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)3 ^! A3 L, K1 p4 n$ N
6 }$ h: Z; W+ ]A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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0 l: m6 z0 y$ z- t% nA=0.1
$ O6 A1 f; H' Q1 T) R5 w1 c! x+ K0 k" n( d, ]% U
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去 ]+ F. V% T3 E" e @: K
, g/ J+ ]! u' K* X$ W3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)0 q* l; U$ G) o8 k. K0 q
4 a" q4 u, P" M4 h2 wA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)& u9 s, {" c7 D# g
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A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好+ K) `4 i2 Y7 M. H
2 _6 h( z$ W# C, `! ^第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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