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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘
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初盘高水,豪门要防冷" ~1 t) A0 ~; M
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09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
2 U4 b4 g+ ^! W" ?. o 英超主队" e9 M+ L2 @1 I& ]+ D
胜:11场 79%$ M! G% |" W& q: e
平:2场 14%
/ l! l, F3 }7 ? 负:1场 7%
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9 t; j5 L1 M0 d+ h6 A# |/ h) M 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。
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一、初盘阶段
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; \) I p1 E- |# D9 Z2 ^5 w) x, ~ 具体到水位如下:9 v. g+ t/ M$ G; ?$ ]- L; v, I
初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
. Q1 n* B/ \& `9 `0 g/ O0 u4 K 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平- Q$ P# A3 Q: L0 a
初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平
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3 Q. p0 w& Z$ a# s0 R' M 分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
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3 G" b1 X- T7 ?7 {9 {1 r5 f1 j0 K 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.001 J) ~- D; [! d" H# @, W
热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
+ u4 W" M. ^4 x 热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.009 K. N; ]9 o4 J% d
# s" W1 E# s a2 B; B 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
% _ i7 ~0 m& q 初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
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二、临场阶段. [4 v$ Y* k6 y9 I
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具体到盘口如下:5 C9 k( q, j5 u
临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜
! S$ G1 ]) s( C2 X' J 临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
! H- o+ s+ @. Q2 U; z" |/ R3 l 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
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热刺VS伯恩利( ]! Z) n+ F; p0 p; }
初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00, m# Z( U: i5 w2 x* g9 Y; ]
终盘:0.77球半1.09/ M& i+ s) l1 l: X1 w+ M1 z& B, l
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临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。
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- ~2 L/ |7 S1 X/ j3 t9 u 三、球队表现
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0 b' Q+ ` h- q9 q" ~ 在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。3 L/ ^5 M" E7 b% P' K# `1 Y
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四、投注要点
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( N1 ] h% q. d; P1 D2 j 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
/ a# o% m3 W) U4 m 要点2:初盘中水,重点防平' g, A" ?+ q& j
要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能) ]/ ]0 S: H0 e5 ^1 ^+ ]2 |4 \
要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
( r* H4 _# a1 d3 c. o3 z O 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
2 X" x# Q$ i+ ?& g6 e- n+ c. a$ Z w 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任# y3 o1 f" @/ k, e
要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
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! ^( z* L: X! r6 | 对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
- q# s+ f6 m4 H& D: A/ u- r 对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方/ E2 k% c2 C5 _" C& B3 H
面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。
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