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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
9 u+ P; K. S5 l( H: `8 M     
! W$ i# \1 J6 G% G, d9 P     平手中水,主队有利
% ~: D2 D' K3 m& C# g# G0 a     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
6 r) @- p4 ]) [  m' b. a& u     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:; n3 _2 ?, z- F( Z1 Q' W
     英超主队" [/ N/ k* N1 e- n% G: f4 Z) A8 q
     胜:13场 48%
7 R  m* u9 R7 Z6 ?     平:5场 17%
% P8 H0 b4 M4 B     负:9场 35%
$ X; Z, Y; L  u! v     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
. q2 q3 ?- _: [' I! S     2 A3 H, n$ A' C% l
     一、初盘阶段, ~+ h" E% Q4 f* g1 n
     具体到水位如下:
1 {8 Q0 e. F( g) B0 Y. I: [. v     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
: C- a5 D# z6 j+ A) m# O& k     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
1 K" x4 ]# y* ]& I. p" q     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
! G3 b% [9 l. t- V% c. q8 m' T     
$ A& l  z0 q5 b8 O, n# g  I     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。+ O" J  s( f6 C4 T- r6 \4 I
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。& ?5 B( u3 r9 {% O! W8 Z% A1 P
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
$ X- c& S0 v/ Q* w0 `0 v     
4 h; p- t1 a9 Q) m     二、临场阶段5 X$ `- r8 O6 D4 z& q; d
     + f4 L8 ~' W* D% r# a
     具体到变盘和水位如下:
2 v' i( y0 s: W" }4 }     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负0 s' c  N, F& j- u6 E) n2 E9 K! q
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负& O  |- t0 P' t  y
     
$ D2 T( B- F4 v1 [     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。9 R! J# a( [& h* x' q3 M
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
! e% _% d% F6 |7 T0 J! D1 f     
' i  I* i# ]. c- E" @" \     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
. C6 Q8 S! S* o/ i9 S+ D8 X1 U     初盘:0.82平手1.045 y  i- @( C: W' T) l
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.852 c7 c2 R" f- c# n9 z4 A; A
     * I* }& \& {' i9 D
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
8 Q" Q( V7 |, {' z, t     初盘:0.76平手1.10
' \1 {7 [# m! |$ a- l3 j  \     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.919 ]. X% w3 q' X
     $ E5 y, j1 Y9 k4 c( r
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
' v- K/ m/ {1 \1 I' E: G     初盘:0.82平手1.04. F5 ~- ]9 j5 X% \( b3 I! f+ M
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98: K  k0 d) ]2 Z. @# m+ H* M
     / }6 c- N* U% }7 }
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
- J3 b+ _1 J: p3 N+ j/ K- ~7 @     初盘:0.88平手0.98
+ H6 h8 m% @& I* m3 w) {! y     终盘:1.12平/半0.746 j5 L0 _: @- q
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。' m3 V+ Q4 L6 E5 o& e1 T# n! O
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。7 o  u$ p* E" Z$ q' I) z
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。/ R3 Z: B7 t! A
     
* }& ]& f# }4 {. F) O; e     三、球队表现
2 A% d8 v8 p0 ]& L, A5 n; Q' N     
- I! |: ~# B. x" q* u     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。- _) Y; G, e3 D8 O
     
* n/ y7 w1 U$ e7 b6 v     四、投注要点
% B! ?& [9 N2 ~! K     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
4 h! i! d, I( p0 ~' S, \* i: x1 i     要点2:平手降盘、走两头$ R* |$ X2 L/ O+ [
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
: T2 w  f; s  S2 t. q* r     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
& X7 t7 O8 I3 Q7 }- d; @0 g( R. W     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
& r' r4 W; e( r7 w1 @6 N. ^* R     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
$ H# n1 J- ~6 _- _+ ?3 A     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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