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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
* M! F- X+ T; x# i( O; T- c
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h" F' m, Q% Z' J西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率8 K& C/ _' P- c0 x# J% z6 z
2 S; `# {5 |& o: S
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:# t6 b) ^, p/ [* ]# j% `
" D/ L7 Q) x2 T4 }+ v" V; {3 C皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% * S4 `$ g8 Q1 d6 D+ U' v
. ~! Z' b1 W/ _3 ~4 I' e很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?, b' u- S0 w! }" s* X
/ @) X' A9 X3 K: j( e5 e* t答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
$ _7 ], N+ r. T) p U. \4 d5 ^; |
! q ]: r! @5 P7 H& i J/ |/ W/ f, {: O0 R+ l/ ^ l& j
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?: p8 H; f) C& I# [0 Y( B2 y
1 q, s! m8 X) ^+ x
( h. E% L. s" l1 v0 |+ V, _盈利可能性
" f9 @7 ?( F8 z t6 {) K$ x+ b7 b' ]" T& |; ?8 x" S( k
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
* U& E4 _; o, P# M# B. x7 X! X6 a: z( s4 D' l: w9 J+ P: Z3 e
增值) \3 ~( _9 B/ S2 ?
9 b8 C2 M3 i2 {4 W4 q# {% u
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
* `# a1 w) j$ Y! J$ _- Q# s7 e& ?% @, H! R3 k# K8 e; z% G7 D
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?9 r; @: n) t! x3 b
2 D2 \$ s; r. z
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 & @) S: p' N9 G: d' Z2 Z5 f( `3 l
# f/ V2 k5 J$ T4 B- q
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么7 k9 _0 [, L# d% ^/ U- I3 ]; J/ V/ h1 @
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润- F. Z0 s6 a8 u0 n7 T( i' R
60%的机会你会一无所有
1 D- ]# q9 L) i预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 8 F* L7 Y/ T* W
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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! \4 ~( P, r c1 C2 B增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
7 H' s- E9 k0 X, s% T1 q/ A7 A( r) p9 c, K0 R' o) F. ]3 c+ _
基于增值的投注, F/ g8 z L: Q" T" P4 y
) s$ k: G3 n6 d* b9 y5 X; I凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
5 a4 L2 ~% L; a1 p
( I9 w7 n3 a! v+ L- z O公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)" ~+ d# e, u! @. A1 ^8 p
0 C1 u; H: K# g6 o* Q8 NA=博彩资金
+ q) l& p! T( C9 v; g, yP=获胜机会
5 t" J/ ^, f: e# Q; O$ IO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
8 V! F) H$ B: [9 |; |/ M c" N0 p. ^. ~. {
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
7 s1 j t+ M( o: Q
- z/ W. s8 {5 |) b好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。9 Z; `& x& M& B8 N9 u" n
$ {% m H! L: ?1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)/ S& b5 ?* r7 w- f& d" V7 t
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)9 [$ x: d' h( W) X6 Y, |, {2 g0 C+ W
3 W2 N5 G. U4 c) F# ~
A=0
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5 }, L) T- W. H% I4 W* c$ p o结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
: X) c2 K* O' ?7 g" P1 e' ]
0 i' h, S7 H) B6 H/ \2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
4 C* F1 c6 F, ? F
% E5 J/ w! M8 [* H1 p* jA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
" g/ Y# a/ O2 T" Z! X0 L) G( \+ l. R8 D& Z( N; C; z. R
A=0.13 X/ d. _1 p- @7 s
. \5 W. n9 C& f) p结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去( M$ {, t$ r7 a. V) A; {
9 @! U/ q, h- }0 c- _1 @+ m! ]
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)+ Q1 c* q1 Y; h* N
" g- _1 E: w5 @
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
; k. Z9 d8 Z) u7 |6 H* ]# }5 M# H$ P+ K7 ^. q2 `
A= -0.2
* Z' ~3 k% o( u! Q3 c, K4 d) h t. z1 z7 f% c( F, E: u
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好+ {& n9 w& b% W+ w. g. E. e
4 v: X: L( ?) O0 n3 o1 Z第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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