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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。/ [+ ]! B" T* R- {/ J: u5 n! f
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) F$ X- }5 Z8 t9 M西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率2 M5 c. M/ p' \2 t
" Z7 B$ Y6 N8 p% `. g以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
u: D& f' x, a% ^/ {2 u* B; j A9 y" Q3 u" t
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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0 n# j }, e" T7 {9 l* M很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?3 R$ I8 d5 Q$ d1 Y7 ^
; a$ J) L, @+ e答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)& s" z8 ]+ W5 D2 A8 n% ?
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9 c9 ~4 j7 a& B0 v以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?! U, a) \3 c/ ~' J, M
& J+ Z1 s+ J, W8 G" R% Z
! D) i; F! w0 j- T, d盈利可能性
0 |4 W/ v* b+ K2 _: j" `+ y) j/ \, D
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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4 Q( R( Z1 p3 L' v. ]许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。, X* q4 }+ r) q/ [
0 m& A, p0 F$ j! |你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?6 W+ f: k0 H: H+ w/ n& Z! n. o# e3 H
# z# {' u' _/ a& Ya) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 / v" ~- Y4 d6 X5 G( D4 \
; \$ {9 e$ p& { L& O正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么4 m) B0 p' \9 `/ F8 |/ Y4 |
$ m9 q* w i. W0 z# ~: e40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
! b% p. z3 p- @( Y; H60%的机会你会一无所有4 r; w6 t7 ?# r$ N+ E
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 ) i5 t2 I9 s- F4 ]2 G3 c) w" b
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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4 j4 P/ o/ k' U9 U* ^+ G1 R增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)- g2 ?. l- @1 F4 ]& C1 j3 [* ^3 m
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A=博彩资金
; p( S7 h5 T/ M7 F* O* w3 |, oP=获胜机会
" f5 I* j9 y1 s e6 r* G# P* R# rO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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3 W6 A" H e/ |6 M首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。0 t4 Z* F* F$ I1 f5 H4 B
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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c6 ]9 ~9 K5 x- \9 N% pA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)7 R+ w5 s. Y5 {3 W4 R; @
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A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢6 b* H! D* x+ e! U4 a
2 |" }' V0 B; n* V4 Y2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)& C! S* N& R% G$ T, q) Q0 p
1 X/ G6 p, }! a2 T) GA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去: K. a8 _# M3 W( d6 }9 ^' ^' ]
7 p" H" k9 y6 x$ I1 {- }3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2), [7 c: O# Y3 R$ @2 h
, P) I; e+ W, U4 }# G: bA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)" S. ]+ }- ~# Q. ?2 v
/ E( D1 N/ y) ? `/ ^' H+ |: B( q1 LA= -0.2
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3 m+ \6 F# K3 f# o5 K' o# ]' e: d* f结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好; M) I% a5 C6 y! @7 `0 V) q* i
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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