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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘6 g+ j/ m1 |& t7 b4 ^" ^) X
: y5 y8 Q3 `! u 平手中水,主队有利
7 `2 m3 k3 ]2 p# b( T1 j 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
0 h& _+ f7 R2 u% t! {8 s% W7 w 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:* g2 ]/ E* B! [+ R4 R6 P# ]/ d7 \
英超主队5 z( G8 N2 x9 b0 l! S
胜:13场 48%4 l4 p7 }2 K4 z+ h8 a) a9 S) Q( e
平:5场 17%
! G2 y* o3 ]5 {6 c c+ _5 I 负:9场 35%0 W1 ?4 O6 {* L4 b: ^0 b! U/ u$ {
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。" d( v1 D8 \ ?; g3 l0 H, L
: P& I H; C" w% ^4 L' Z
一、初盘阶段
$ {6 N# w7 h* ~' T4 _ 具体到水位如下:# R, p- X" ^0 a# p
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负8 _% E8 y& f2 I' v) G
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
3 m+ G) Y& D/ W& Q9 B9 J 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负5 m# F* s% p7 Z0 f; {! `
# _! @+ m# B0 o# }; W* G
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。; x2 @& D3 t; P1 ^* j, s% e
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。% _: l/ U2 s6 X
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。7 N- j9 K. j( Y* O3 t% ?- x
( d% q5 ]6 Z1 Z- ?1 [ h( o$ z" _
二、临场阶段$ Z2 _3 u% ~$ F9 O
5 U& z2 v0 C; ~% G+ n+ e/ Q
具体到变盘和水位如下:) g) I8 ?( y5 A* { B
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负8 X2 O9 I7 v$ A: h6 y
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负) [" n- f7 t- i' T4 z
, e+ q7 z0 w' o& q, n+ x 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。 m) `, y0 w! W5 F
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:5 d o- n- W D# k
C7 A0 o3 p2 Q8 {8 _% p$ F3 R 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿( ~' ?9 ~' M0 _! D
初盘:0.82平手1.04# e2 {7 q- L! A( h2 ?
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
4 w* z; q6 ~! t # r7 B# y& u9 V: V7 e6 `9 N% M
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆; T `+ Z+ x* @) r
初盘:0.76平手1.10( T1 W4 f2 V( g* g1 L
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
) r4 K s+ Q- T& F 1 D' N( [- c6 o; N( }3 A
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
' r( e+ E* H: u7 A- t) f 初盘:0.82平手1.048 m6 [! Z9 j/ m
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
0 f. _6 O A, u- b- j6 W- U( ^
; G, Q) k( R3 d* r1 i" N 伯恩利2-1西汉姆
4 ?+ D& U. `; `) ^, e 初盘:0.88平手0.98
/ c+ @; L7 h6 m* ?9 w 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
" Q, V' E1 j' o# x: d P 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
" K5 P0 b. O7 S% z6 @ 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
* L- W3 M* `8 b- e 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
* V K4 H' R! u( D
0 ~7 c8 s& }! |4 K% D1 l1 t- @ 三、球队表现7 p9 M j- H# G& x
* A5 C; f) a* j8 { 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
0 `) e) g1 O g/ S& Q
: Y- x2 k6 `1 n* q. [3 }" H 四、投注要点
5 K, v4 P2 n. F7 ~8 f 要点1:平手中水、主多不败
2 D) Y3 ^' P" n8 T 要点2:平手降盘、走两头
3 `1 E! ~% k& W8 K/ H6 I 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败9 Q' [# h6 \+ ?9 P! B) n6 W; T
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
7 h2 D4 m9 }" z4 O$ x3 M 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任9 F) S9 }5 `7 ]& s7 f4 b g
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
2 l3 a3 W7 s! R2 F: y 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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