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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘" q+ M( k5 X! v- D6 Q$ b" I! {4 A" ^
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初盘高水,豪门要防冷
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: z U+ Z' [+ x0 B$ S8 A* P/ [ # ?5 p3 K# V2 d" z
09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
. F( K, }# C. c: \' @% v: `3 e 英超主队
9 H) @' s# g" \% _ 胜:11场 79%
' n5 @" a" ?) Z" H+ X' L 平:2场 14%+ D" h1 a( F. s5 i* S# Z
负:1场 7%
. ]7 i3 f& i% U+ x( ~3 R1 E" h
# E5 n5 o7 U! Q$ J# P, x, Y" i- p 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。
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- E: }! `+ U: q3 Q6 a4 o7 d, ` 一、初盘阶段0 @8 H* j$ A% g0 ^. A6 x9 u1 b$ h0 i
' } \" d) C) T2 W9 V0 A$ R1 ?0 D 具体到水位如下:7 M- r: x( I' |: i
初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
$ M0 w' b2 T. Y% i" M, B G: @7 ] 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平1 T8 N' q; t( U
初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平" W" F: l8 q4 p. n5 c& i" z
# s- T: g5 i& D
分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:1 c/ Q' w% e4 c c4 w) y
& G8 ~, D/ L6 Q2 W
维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00" f4 p1 e' {: q! n1 x6 s
热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
* z& b' O+ v0 |- u 热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
& j+ w' B* ?" m! Y' n- Q 4 {; R8 P( }/ }" r4 x* ~( }! @
初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。9 n! Z0 T% f0 n
初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
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二、临场阶段' z7 M, [, f8 W. m$ Q
3 ^8 L: n4 n5 l, u- V! @ 具体到盘口如下:
% e. k9 N) [" F/ n3 L0 i, \# C 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜
5 ~4 z' f% p5 b6 f 临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
1 @1 \; D4 d# m! V' B' P$ \9 Q 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
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热刺VS伯恩利2 P! ^. c1 j( v5 \, _. a) L
初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00' H4 a6 |7 ^; U1 d: A
终盘:0.77球半1.09" P( _: \" m/ f& P
% R N2 q1 ~7 K L5 I) w 临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。
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5 Z( t# Y$ u0 ?* n5 r" m: l1 m5 i 三、球队表现6 D$ n4 H' I' X6 S" ?; H
/ x) r t, W. A! q$ O# [' ~0 q# i 在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。5 Y1 {7 g. R V Q }
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四、投注要点* A% O! Q3 u8 H' k4 g9 O' A
( t/ ]) o2 c" [. v0 S9 o 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
. B' X* H, C' \ Q( ^ 要点2:初盘中水,重点防平& g. l `& f; Q- G
要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能
: r2 \5 R$ e- |6 n v 要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
4 b5 J1 M. b- m; Y0 R 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
! q! p; ^7 m1 |) O% R4 t9 B) Q" P. w' g 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
7 e- }" f9 [0 e1 ?6 T; W 要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
% t! U3 f; H7 a% w
5 V( w4 l3 c$ y& u3 d 对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法: W$ m) Y; h+ y/ T% W7 S: g+ q0 A
对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方
1 L3 M5 M! @/ F% c2 w 面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。9 W6 e) k9 n1 ]3 n# ^
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