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[lastpost] => 2774971 比特币的看跌势头和期权市场：2025 年第三季度资本重新配置的情绪驱动分析（转） 1760890935 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
当前市场：为什么BTC横盘但Altcoin却在“流血”？
[复制链接]
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在最近的几次走势中，我们很容易注意到：BTC横盘（震荡）在稳定的价格区间内。
% X* J @/ c9 [8 [% t2 tAltcoin持续下跌，尽管比特币尚未出现剧烈下跌。" |& z' m, x g1 D, l
越南市场的USDT汇率仍然很高，显示出对稳定币的需求并未减弱。0 d1 x( j8 {% V3 ^5 i- Z) Q
你们可以比较两张图表：altcoin/BTC和Altcoin/USDT的相对强弱指数。9 F5 s+ L/ U& z( l$ P4 b1 \8 N' `
从九月初开始。上涨时，alt/btc弱于usdt，因为atl/usdt对冲使用了期货杠杆，而下跌时则强于usdt，因为直接通过现货交易。* J& e0 b9 i8 M$ H2 i
alt/btc8 A1 E# r& _5 P, O3 C( X
alt/usdt# d; ]/ j# [4 P) \ i& p- W$ z
那么，发生了什么？0 T: @( i4 t/ C3 J6 e
1. 大户轮换资金- _/ j1 {) L; F+ B" |' P) j
与其直接将山寨币抛售为USDT（会导致alt/USDT图表大幅下滑），大户和市场做市商选择将山寨币转换为BTC或ETH。- b+ y, G3 C% b3 j
这种方式使得alt/USDT对看起来仍然相对稳定。
# _ z' ^7 Q6 X% l% \* F% F/ S) h但实际上，如果观察ALT/BTC或ALT/ETH对，我们会发现山寨币贬值非常严重。
' k# h8 }9 o; R) ~9 s$ H6 l1 _. j- C2. 市场的防御心理 Z# S% K0 P) o6 M" c5 Q
投资者正在缩小风险，优先选择BTC和ETH——这些资产流动性大，波动性小。" b) h/ i: p& ?) S# \
这解释了为什么资金没有流入山寨币，导致它们逐渐疲弱。7 I7 _; f r$ Q: K! M2 Y) i* N: A
3. 需要关注的信号
" Q* E% f* O6 rBTC主导率和ETH主导率有上升趋势→确认资金流向大币种。
5 k5 J. Z5 q* S- j( g; w- y* z山寨币市场总市值持续下降→显示山寨币仍在被抽血。
3 d m1 i# C( X0 m. h# O# K, }USDT保持高价→稳定币需求依然强劲，USDT主导率仍高，但尚未出现资金愿意冒险回流的迹象。
6 E6 n7 I& N) D$ R' X4. 对投资者的意义* p2 k7 A3 x, w
在这个阶段，缺乏新买盘的山寨币难以形成独立波动。
' _* J! R8 ^3 Y如果BTC横盘时间过长后再大幅波动，山寨币可能会被“踩”出一个波段。
7 |. S3 `1 W% y! o安全策略：关注资金流动，避免过多持有弱势山寨币，集中于顶级币或在强烈信号出现后再大举投资山寨币。
1 _8 g) g1 S" f: m: o9 T6 J7 n结论：市场正进入大户收集BTC/ETH流动性的阶段，山寨币只是资金轮换周期中的“猎物”。散户投资者需要保持警觉，不要被alt/USDT尚未崩盘的感觉迷惑，以为这是机会。/ c% B- z4 W7 z
#加密货币#
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当前离线
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市场操作有点阴谋论，大户在搞鬼转移资金，小散步森严防范保身。 |
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这波山寨币被割得血淋淋的，BTC装死不动，小币全在裸奔，庄家明显在抽水换仓呢 |
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