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[虚拟币交流]
随着山寨币投机行为加剧,比特币的主导地位跌至 60% 以下(转)
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比特币在加密货币市场的主导地位急剧下滑,跌至59.2%,并跌破多个关键技术水平。此次下跌可能是一个重要的转折点,预示着期待已久的山寨币涨势即将开启。
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C% D7 H' a* n; ]( J; G& Q( G仅在过去的一个月里,由于以太坊和其他山寨币都取得了显著的增长,比特币的市场份额就从 63.9% 下降。
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我们是如何到达这里的。这次崩盘标志着一场重大市场战的结束。以下是我们对前期的分析.
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技术水平面临压力
S4 S+ v4 e R) aDan Gambardello 表示,比特币的主导地位近期跌破了 60% 的心理关口,并跌破了绿色移动平均线的支撑位。目前,它正在测试 59% 附近的蓝色移动平均线。
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9 C5 r9 K$ J5 G! Y9 U$ |1 K% j4 C上一次出现这种情况是在2024年11月,当时山寨币曾短暂上涨,随后比特币重新占据主导地位。此次下跌之前,市场经历了数月59%至66%的盘整。持续的跌破可能会促使大量资金转向山寨币。# L$ ?9 p' z5 a+ \5 |& t
; |9 }& f+ ~' ~, B( G* c, x' i6 z分析师 AltcoinGordon 进一步指出,比特币的主导地位正在下降,他指出,比特币已经跌破了近 62% 的三年上涨趋势线,这是一个关键的结构性转变。他认为,自 2022 年以来,这一水平一直抑制着山寨币的走势,跌破这一水平可能会引发整个市场更广泛的参与。
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这又是一次“假动作”吗?
9 N2 \7 i) l5 }% H3 v9 u谨慎仍需谨慎。分析师 ZYN 指出,尽管历史经验表明,假突破是可能的,但目前的情况表明,比特币的主导地位可能已经达到顶峰。. Y' H' z7 ~% v# W- Z% a3 h% {5 J+ t- @
& R( B/ g4 C5 _: H' q2024 年第四季度,比特币短暂占据主导地位滑落至突破EMA-50水平后迅速反弹。ZYN指出,尽管历史经验表明,假突破是可能的,但目前的情况表明,比特币的主导地位可能已经达到顶峰。$ z$ W1 `/ y8 J# t% n2 G# G, T: V: I3 Y
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他认为,如果周收盘价低于关键的EMA-50移动平均线,可能确认市场将出现更具决定性的走势,并为“超级山寨币季”奠定基础。交易员将密切关注周收盘价,以区分真正的崩盘和又一次错误的开局。
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市场份额正在发生变化& g4 M$ ] m8 L" z- o5 g" n5 s: {
其影响已在数据中显现。以太坊的市场份额已从上个月的 9.7% 上升至今天的 12.9%,增长了超过三个百分点。其他加密货币的市场份额也已上升至 27.9%,这表明山寨币正在被广泛追捧。这种转变不仅是技术层面的,也是心理层面的,因为投资者的兴趣似乎正在超越比特币和以太坊。: Q) V8 ~& x+ _; X/ j5 _1 Z
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值得注意的是,比特币的主导地位在今年6月底达到峰值65.1%,这使得当前的下跌既迅速又引人注目。如果这种下跌趋势持续下去,可能标志着自2022年以来最重要的主导地位逆转之一,重塑市场领导地位,并可能加速山寨币的增长。
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感觉山寨币要热闹起来了,比特币得让个位子了。% K6 ?3 R3 j' }( S) P7 i' `5 a8 z
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