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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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* Z& F% X) M2 e9 p 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。+ a7 H. h# l9 [6 ?* S6 _5 C
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7 u* E+ C4 {: q& M4 C 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。 d7 p- k- ?! o; o* h" I
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。; Q$ @, U. Q J* d6 S6 u5 D
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。1 J* p' ~6 v" X$ W) E
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。3 ~1 z! A- |' C4 Q( p0 v$ R. A: @
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，% H. W$ M7 h! ]- W( `& l& H# y
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。# S. R5 c8 x. x# z0 h/ Z, u
4 e- d5 m& A' b6 K “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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) O& ]; p& O9 r+ l. B' i. x 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。- r: ~4 L1 ^/ ~
* `6 e0 L7 i [" W) u; Y7 T “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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8 D: K6 p- ?# M: A积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。$ d2 @- ?& N9 M( ?6 b- @
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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: i( \" d& k b 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势 y C- o! B! V& s0 U3 J. W
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。( _9 b" u- v {, C. ~2 J3 L
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，3 ]# k7 g: E# F& f# s8 D( g
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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