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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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7 E% A$ a6 o7 ? j. H; {! [$ R 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续+ S+ `3 L3 `. Y: J2 G
& c7 d2 U, p0 ~& H8 z3 a# h' b Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。4 [; a- F; `( L( Y7 h8 g2 s( E
9 U/ F. \9 Z( d5 V4 g: L* E7 } 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。3 b- Y6 E/ x+ R R0 w7 V' m# G
/ H) r7 C7 L, E8 P, o0 |0 G 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。* S4 l7 a6 M7 G9 |% m
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. j5 l3 { m2 T8 a( X 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，6 M$ C2 a: {0 H7 v/ `1 L7 {4 K
5 c" l' g) u( N% T8 a+ g+ H价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。0 s. a, n' [ ~" x& y
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”' f5 d5 N* G/ w" {7 e
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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3 o9 H' Z2 s; f u “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”2 \' E4 J: d$ o R' ?' E$ r
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。3 S- {; v' \* g0 Y9 ^6 S7 H
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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. U: w3 f. j! b! g( H 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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9 Q" o% S* r% f 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，, x' o7 _) R* J4 B4 a" G) w; m$ j
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”1 s7 J( r0 }, A6 r
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