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[虚拟币交流]
比特币(BTC)将进入 300 天牛市?这一关键指标揭示了什么(转)
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加密货币分析师Axel Adler表示,比特币 [BTC]可能会进入300 天的牛市。来自CryptoQuant的短期持有者利润数据显示,牛市正如火如荼地进行。: i. f* A8 e, b/ f p
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目前价格仅比两个月前的 73.7 万美元高点低 4.2%,且减半事件已经过去,购买压力可能呈上升趋势。
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未平仓合约表明价格还有更大的上涨空间。' ?1 q2 V6 R9 E
6 {3 }7 E7 r9 X' Q% ]1 |2 @. L评估之前的峰值以及对未来的预测
7 i/ ^8 ~/ L4 s# f/ o% A短期持有人花费产出利润率 (STH SOPR) 的 90 天 SMA 在 2018 年 1 月达到峰值 1.064,在 2021 年 3 月达到峰值 1.057。这表明 STH 利润峰值区间为 1.064-1.057。
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截至发稿时,STH SOPR 的 90 天移动平均线为 1.015。
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这表明上涨空间更大,而且顶部很可能尚未到来。此外,SOPR 90DMA 达到 1.015 与周期峰值之间有 291 天。
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然而,2020-21 周期中相同值之间仅相差 105 天。因此,我们可能会经历三到十二个月的牛市。
$ Z4 W9 Q/ Z# X: o) n该分析师还指出,近期持仓量7日移动平均线仅上涨9%。
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相比之下,2024 年 1 月的涨幅为 20%,2021 年的多次 OI 7DMA 变动也接近 20%。
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综合起来,这两项观察结果都支持比特币市场才刚刚开始反弹的观点。
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突破 ATH 后需要注意的阻力位是多少?7 |3 n% ?* z' n* P- y
局部范围(紫色)和不平衡(白色)都被令人信服地打破了。如果这种势头持续下去,73,700 美元的高点可能很快就会被扫除。
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$ s8 b( Y' v4 a1 w$ ^! F" |7 nRSI 尚未突破 70,这将是 BTC 在历史高点附近占据看涨主导地位的强烈信号。
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0 Z/ n5 F& z2 C& w; a1 j. L4 u, `: xCMF 飙升至 +0.05 以上,表明资本大量流入和需求增加。( K" p2 O$ K9 f+ [4 I9 g8 g1 O
3 y) k% z. M! G9 b8 g# e斐波那契扩展位(浅HS)显示 79.2 万美元、8.81 万美元和 9.7 万美元是下一个需要关注的阻力位。
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