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[虚拟币交流]
美国滞胀风险吓退加密市场 比特币以太坊双双退至悬崖边缘（转）
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加密市场目前似乎正处于悬崖边，正在争论该走哪个方向，这也意味着更多的看涨和看跌言论将涌入市场。) O6 ?/ H, d* d* x6 F& u+ Q" H" w
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而由于人们再次开始担心美国滞胀，加密货币先表现出下跌的趋势。6 r4 X, s, I7 N, a
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根据CoinDesk数据，截至发稿时，比特币交易价格接近 62400 美元，24小时内下跌2.4%，较3月的历史高点则已4 l" B% I0 {: c+ v3 h
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累计跌去15%。以太坊下跌4%，至3200 美元以下，衡量流动性的指数CoinDesk 20下跌 2.6%，至 2170点。
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上周的美国GDP报告显示，继上一季度增长3.4%之后，其今年第一季度的年化增长率降至1.6%。与此同时，美! C* Z" g! _' V4 z1 `; e7 W$ Y
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联储关键通胀指标PCE指数显示，今年前三个月的物价年化率从2023年最后一个季度的1.8%升至3.4%。
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GDP增速放缓加上通胀粘性增加让市场再次看到滞胀出现的可能性，并进一步削弱了美联储降息的可能性。预测
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, C$ M3 V$ g1 Q# S平台Polymarket上关于美联储货币政策的押注中，大多数交易者现在认为今年不降息的可能性为35%，较一周前8 b& p& [" M ?5 U# F% X
% `- A& S! A- @8 H% Y的26%明显上升。
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CoinDesk分析师Omkar Godbole表示，比特币牛市持续的关键是美国财政部即将发布的季度再融资公告，其将说明1 q5 e, h- u7 U w! V
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一季度美国ZF的借款需求以及财政部普通账户中持有的余额，或将预示着美国接下来的财政政策方向。; `. a' O! C3 }* n$ b) b: ?1 b* p
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还在乐观的一些人
4 y9 i) r2 s: ?- ]这一前景导致加密货币市场情绪明显变得低迷很多。上周六，加密分析师Peter Brandt分析称，比特币的牛市! S! g: j x4 F" v; p
( i/ p5 @$ f/ e# w; n* e周期已经呈现出指数级衰减的模式，80%推动牛市的能量已经消失。# r; @/ X5 d& [) s2 ^
: t, p! Y) V3 f( S5 A他估计比特币当前周期的顶部约为70000美元，而3月时这一价格已经被触及。但他也怀疑比特币仍有可能还未看- P$ i! M! k6 U3 c8 I+ s
o2 m; O9 I! ?* u2 R7 d) Q到价格触顶。( W3 I% n1 }8 X" x
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与此同时，一些分析师还指出本轮比特币上涨之中存在一些更加积极的因素。其中一个关键点在于本轮周期中，' @0 w( ~5 @/ f: F$ p' }
" Y* W0 S7 t$ w8 N: K不同于以往散户为主的推动，机构显然通过比特币ETF贡献了极大的力量。
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5 I; x3 ?! T1 I9 V$ r0 v此外，还有人则指出，比特币的减半事件导致目前该资产的通胀率已经降至1%以下，全球每天只能开采450个比
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特币，这意味着比特币比终极对冲工具——黄金更加稀有。这也让一些投资人坚信比特币比黄金拥有更强的避险
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属性。4 r; a2 H+ Z' ~3 x. m
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