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[lastpost] => 2653587 新研究得出结论,比特币爱好者“不是精神病患者(转) 1717147395 一路顺风
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隨著加密幣價格暴漲,市場加密幣的做空部位正持續減少,這也是可預期的狀況,畢竟光是比特幣過去兩週就漲了 40%,幾乎把高槓桿的做空部位都強制平倉,這次空方損失相當可觀,即使市場還有交易員堅信加密幣會回檔而下注放空,目前市場漲勢依然十分強勁。 著眼於目前難得的機會,資金正瘋狂湧向合約交易,交易員正把握目前的絕佳時機以高槓桿買入做多合約,持續推高加密幣價格,並搭配這一波的以太幣現貨 ETF 題材拉動補漲行情,投機資金也湧入 DeFi,主鏈幣與中小型代幣價格也出現暴漲行情,讓人不禁懷疑市場是否出現過熱的狀況。 更進一步來看,比特幣長期投資者不賣的原因推估是減半行情在幾個月後就會發生,加密幣現在仍然在上漲,先前低點有進場的投資者可以輕鬆看著價格一直彈升,明年減半行情可能把比特幣價格推得更高,長期投資者沒有太充足的理由拋售,況且先前的低潮都度過了,現在終於可以好好享受上升段所帶來的成就感。 雖然大戶沒有拋售,但散戶投資人也不總是輸的那方,他們歧視很聰明的一群投資者,價格上升吸引許多人實現獲利,不會等到後面回調才後悔,我們也主觀認為資金當前過熱,不適合長期投資者進場加碼,這波很難推估會漲到什麼水位,但回落的可能性正在增加。 畢竟加密貨幣市場現在仍然靠槓桿漲上去,外部資金流入的金額並沒有太多,前陣子比特幣現貨 ETF 題材已經有點難漲上去了,上週是靠著以太幣現貨 ETF 才又漲了一個水位,下一個拉抬題材恐怕就沒有那麼容易說服投資者繼續拉抬價格,觸發獲利了結的可能性更大。 目前美國的高利率環境依然壓抑著風險資產的上漲,要加密幣在高利率環境中重新進入牛市並不容易,我們認為加密貨幣市場也沒有充足理由提供外部足夠的誘因大量加碼,近期更像是交易員搭著比特幣現貨 ETF 題材與美債危機炒作加密幣價格,這種漲勢在緊縮環境中較容易出現暴漲暴跌的狀況。 11 月 14 日美國勞動部將公布十月物價指數,Fed 理事上週也出現恐嚇市場,假設物價指數成長出現進一步惡化的跡象,Fed 還繼續採取升息措施,直到通貨膨脹壓力被消除,但如同我們上一期提到的,物價指數已經不太重要,美國就業市場因為觀光旅遊業邁入淡季而逐步冷卻,近期物價調查報告也都指出美國物價沒有出現暴漲的狀況,目前市場預期為月增 0.1%,年增率為 3.8%,物價指數應該不會給市場意外的驚喜。
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