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比特币矿工的供应状况虽然比以往周期更为紧张，但还不足以称之为真正的供应冲击。Axel Adler Jr. 最新发布的《比特币晨报》数据显示，即使交易所的抛售压力持续高企，矿工仍然持有相当数量的场外交易储备。 比特币矿工闪光混合信号阿德勒的核心[url=]争论[/url]该指标基于两个独立但相关的指标。一个指标追踪过去 30 天矿工向交易所流入比特币的移动平均值，直接反映市场实际抛售压力。另一个指标衡量与矿工关联的场外交易地址持有的比特币总余额，从而了解在公开订单簿之外仍有多少比特币可以出售。 综合来看，这些图表表明市场正在消化持续的矿机分销，而不是突然耗尽了隐藏的供应。正如阿德勒所说，“对市场而言，这是一个复杂的信号：隐藏的供应……[url=]场外交易市场悬置商品[/url]与以往周期相比，这种压力虽然有限，但市场渠道中的战术压力尚未消除。 这种区别至关重要。较低的场外交易余额可以被视为利好，因为它意味着矿工可用于大额场外交易的闲置库存较少。但如果矿工当前生产的加密货币仍然以较高的速度流入交易所，那么直接的市场压力依然存在。 交易所资金流入数据是这一论点的核心。根据阿德勒的说法，[url=]矿工交易所资金流入[/url]与早期相比，第四次减半后明显上升[url=]减半后时期[/url]而且，从2025年秋季开始，这一趋势进一步加速。到2026年，30日均线仍处于他所描述的高位，表明“相当一部分新开采的供应仍在流入市场，目前矿业公司的压力还不能说已经消除。”  比特币矿工所有交易所的30日均线流入量 | 来源：Axel Adler近几周来，价格从近期高点有所回落，但阿德勒认为这并非决定性的趋势。他写道：“近几周的图表显示，价格从近期高点出现了局部回调。但鉴于近几个月来的强劲增长，这看起来还不是确认的下跌反转，而更像是交易所资金流入仍然处于高位时的一个短暂暂停。要说矿业股压力真正缓解，需要30日均线从目前的高位持续下跌，而不是在该区域内短暂波动。” 场外交易方面的情况则更为复杂。目前与矿工账户关联的场外交易余额约为 15.26 万枚比特币，远低于 2018 年接近 59.5 万枚比特币的历史峰值，也仅略高于 2025 年 7 月创下的约 14.69 万枚比特币的系列低点。从长期来看，这确实导致场外交易储备处于压缩状态。  比特币场外交易地址群组余额 | 来源：Axel Adler不过，阿德勒明确反驳了储备金已基本耗尽的说法。他写道：“目前的储备水平接近历史区间的下限，但声称缓冲资金‘几乎完全耗尽’则有些夸张：超过15万枚比特币仍然是一个相当大的数量。近几个月来，场外交易余额一直在一个相对狭窄的范围内波动，2月份甚至出现了一次明显的上涨。这看起来更像是储备金处于低但持续存在的阶段，而不是缓冲资金完全耗尽的最终阶段。” 这种框架是本文的关键。报告并非认为矿商供应充足，而是指出供应环境的结构性收紧程度已超过以往周期，但尚未达到完全短缺的程度。阿德勒表示，矿商的“场外交易库存远低于以往周期”，但储备“并未消失”。相反，储备“看起来不再足以像以前那样在市场上造成隐性供应过剩”。 截至发稿时，比特币交易价格为$ 0 r+ N8 F T( T# H6 q) h% W5 v# M
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