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[lastpost] => 2786438 加密矿企 Bitfury 拟对去中心化 AI 计算网络 Gonka 投资 5000 万美元 1764762429 比推快讯
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Bitunix 分析师：ADP 就业爆冷叠加资金分化，BTC 93k 成短期多空关键分水岭
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比推消息，最新数据显示，11 月美国小非农ADP 就业人数意外减少 3.2 万人，远弱于市场预期，显示劳动市场降温速度加快。该份报告是美联储 12 月利率决议前的重要参考依据，就业转弱为政策转向再添变数。数据公布后，避险资产走强，金价回升至 4220 美元一线，加密市场则扩大区间震荡。
宏观层面来看，就业下滑主要来自小微型企业，员工少于 50 人的企业单月减少 12 万个职位，为 2023 年 3 月以来最大跌幅，反映终端需求与融资环境同步承压。薪资年增率降至 4.4%，显示通胀压力边际降温。利率期货市场已将 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率推升至近 90%，短线利率预期转鸽，美元指数波动加剧，风险资产进入重新定价阶段。
加密市场方面，ETF 资金流出入出现明显分化，BTC 现货 ETF 单日净流出 1490 万美元，ETH 则净流入 1.402 亿美元，显示资金轮动由 BTC 转向以太坊生态。近 24 小时清算结构方面，BTC 多单爆仓 4507 万美元、空单 5073 万美元；ETH 多单 2638 万美元、空单 1.0337 亿美元，ETH 空单去化幅度明显偏高，短线波动率仍处高位。目前 BTC 仍需观察能否稳守 93000 美元之上，若失守，90500 美元将成为短线关键防守带。
Bitunix 分析师表示，在就业走弱与降息预期升温的背景下，市场正进入宏观转折预期＋加密内部资金轮动的复合阶段。ETF 资金流向与清算结构显示风险偏好呈现分化而非一致扩张，短期仍属结构性震荡格局。后续需关注利率预期是否进一步下修，以及资金是否持续由比特币向高 Beta 资产扩散，这将决定下一段行情的风险层级与趋势斜率。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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