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[lastpost] => 2785545 山寨币市值蒸发 3840 亿美元：如果没有比特币轮动，该行业能否复苏？（转） 1764501570 人生如赌
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[虚拟币交流]
山寨币市值蒸发 3840 亿美元：如果没有比特币轮动，该行业能否复苏？（转）
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山寨币市场在 10 月 7 日遭受了最严重的打击，导致总市值在图表上急剧下降。
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根据 TradingView 上的山寨币市值图表（不包括稳定币），比特币 [BTC]， 和以太坊 [ETH]从峰值到 11 月 21 日，市场总共损失了 3840 亿美元。
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) `) W0 Q9 ]3 ?8 z上一次出现大量资金外流是在 2024 年 12 月至 2025 年 4 月期间，持续了四个月，期间市场下跌了 53%。
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" ?5 y0 {+ k! H- r7 O0 s9 B! `当前的经济衰退是否会遵循同样的规律尚不清楚，但 AMBCrypto 分析了可能决定潜在逆转的因素。
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山寨币季节性指数4 p+ j( B' k: ^' h
资本流入市场一直是决定哪些资产或行业大幅上涨的关键因素之一。
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; B# t& T- d2 W8 o此前，这种趋势曾支撑了隐私代币持续数周的看涨前景。类似的模式也可能适用于其他加密货币以及比特币整体。
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4 w0 Y9 z2 b# Y$ C' a8 W1 Z山寨币季节性指数能够反映当前市场的资金轮动情况。目前，该指数显示大部分资金仍然集中在比特币上。5 @! w# F. H3 f2 r" i# X- x( j5 k
+ T5 Z+ `* h- c; `% M当资金重新流入山寨币，指数从 75 点及以上进入图表的上部区域时，山寨币可能会开始上涨。
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9 Q4 c) d- O5 T6 N( \根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，上一次确认的山寨币行情发生在 2024 年 12 月 4 日，当时该指数攀升至 87。
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然而，下一步的重大举措仍不确定，Alphractal 数据显示，大量山寨币的价格仍维持在 40-50 的范围内，表明市场将继续保持中性。8 k* H- x+ ?1 t8 O, t9 ~
( @8 F8 x8 [& T! m% E y链上活动仍然至关重要/ w& e. P3 U) u; @0 m
虽然链下资金流动很重要，但了解去中心化应用程序的链上活动仍然至关重要。
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这是通过总锁定价值 (TVL) 来衡量的，它反映了市场中各个协议之间流通的流动性总量。- w+ G% c+ O* P2 q: j
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TVL 的增加表明投资者正在将更多资产锁定到协议中，从而增强了市场信心，支持了看涨前景，并表明了更长期的承诺。2 ?" I6 f7 Y. F
$ B' d2 n9 r. M; w; t H, W8 R目前，整体市场已出现小幅反弹，TVL 达到 1190.9 亿美元。
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$ {. ^5 d4 |* X9 R6 ?, r此外，多个区块链上稳定币供应量的逐步增加表明，许多投资者仍然持观望态度，继续偏爱稳定币而不是山寨币。/ g4 a7 t% l( w3 H) c9 E+ i
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比特币与山寨币的去相关性
) ~4 V- e) d& X0 @* L' l8 l0 E比特币与山寨币之间的相关性是评估山寨币反弹可能性的重要指标。$ ^8 `: }5 M1 Y0 b, T! O+ Z8 T
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当比特币和山寨币的走势相似时，这表明资金正在同时流入或流出这两个领域。0 J5 ?5 ?- b6 h( g
1 K* `$ ?# T% M9 ^ v7 [3 c对于持续的加密货币上涨行情而言，随着市场趋势的上升，一定程度的去相关性往往是必要的。
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/ d3 v1 X! b: Z. R这意味着当山寨币价格上涨时，比特币的上涨速度要么放缓，要么走势相反。这种现象证实了投资者关注点正在转向山寨币。9 x/ g* W) K: p6 n
+ c0 H! u0 g+ @, j7 G* z% H% ^从图表上可以清楚地看出，在 8 月 25 日至 10 月 10 日期间，山寨币（绿色标记）的资金流入量比比特币（蓝色标记）更为强劲。
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6 f# H% \' b* T$ a最后想说的话
/ e" l. L' ~1 E: w: h" e# R+ d目前，山寨币已进入中性阶段，大多数山寨币的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 均在 40-50 的范围内。6 f4 ?4 T" \$ A. H: I
经历了动荡的十月份之后，山寨币市场遭受了最严重的打击之一。' n3 h' U2 R7 e
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