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[lastpost] => 2766150 美国首家加密货币基金称比特币价格将达到 75 万美元（转） 1758220102 jslinen
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[虚拟币交流]
加密货币市值上涨2% 比特币在美联储降息后逼近118,000美元-转
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全球加密货币市值周四上涨2%，达到4.2万亿美元，因比特币在美联储今年首次降息后稳步攀升，逼近118,000美元。 不过，涨幅相对温和，投资者在权衡央行对未来政策走向的谨慎态度。 比特币最新上涨1%，报117,426美元。以太坊上涨2.8%，至4,609美元。XRP也上涨了2.9%，至3.10美元。 美联储主席鲍威尔将周三的四分之一个百分点降息描述为一种风险管理措施，并强调决策者并不急于加快宽松周期。他的言论抑制了市场对更激进降息的预期，限制了风险资产的整体热情。
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. W' v7 a: v7 O: ~6 g7 T交易员早已预期美联储将降息 市场反应空间有限联邦公开市场委员会以11比1的投票结果决定将基准贷款利率下调至4.00%至4.25%区间。唯一反对者是新任命的理事斯蒂芬·米兰，他主张降息50个基点。 交易员普遍已为这一举措做好准备。根据CME FedWatch工具追踪的期货市场数据显示，市场对25个基点降息的预期概率高达96%，因此该决定基本已被广泛预期。 这一提前布局意味着大部分潜在利好已反映在价格中，分析师称市场呈现出“买消息、卖事实”的行情氛围。 , C* L; l- G1 b: c
& ^0 N- t% U6 m/ h0 l1 ?# M, E0 A美联储降息为加密货币创造条件 但交易员仍持观望态度DeFi Technologies总裁Andrew Forson表示，借贷成本的降低最终将引导更多资金流入数字资产领域。 “资本成本降低意味着更多资金将流入数字资产市场，因为资金的风险门槛利率变低了，”他指出。他补充说，质押产品和区块链项目可能成为传统债券的有吸引力替代品，兼具收益与增值潜力。 尽管美联储已降息，但加密市场整体仍较为平静。比特币期货的未平仓合约保持稳定，美联储决策后并未出现大规模强平潮。分析师指出，鲍威尔的表态以及即将公布的经济数据，仍是交易员是否扩大持仓的关键因素。 7 n4 B p* N/ _* S
* v3 k" v( c( ]' j! c: e鲍威尔的谨慎态度削弱了美联储降息对加密市场的即时影响历史也表明，美联储降息后加密货币的上涨往往需要时间酝酿。2024年12月美联储启动宽松周期时，比特币曾短暂上涨5%，随后进入盘整，真正的持续涨幅则是在几周后才逐步展开。 本次市场观察人士也预期将出现类似走势。鲍威尔坚持维持谨慎立场，加上通胀与经济增长前景仍存不确定性，使得即便市场风险偏好有所提升，短期波动性依然受抑。 BitMine的Tom Lee本周预测，如果美联储继续宽松政策，比特币与以太坊在未来三个月可能会出现“爆炸性涨幅”。他的观点也反映出市场普遍预期：一旦宽松周期加速，流动性敏感型资产将表现突出。 . d$ j1 Q5 Q9 [$ s; d% H
目前，加密货币市场对美联储降息反应仍较为克制。交易员聚焦于央行10月会议的信号，以判断此次降息是否意味着政策转向的开始，抑或只是一次性调整。
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