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[虚拟币交流]
比特币主导地位下跌 2% 后，山寨币季节又来了吗？（转）
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自6月27日以来，山寨币市场相对于比特币的表现相对较好，但远不及前两个周期中我们观察到的山寨币旺季。山寨币市值和比特币主导地位图表为预测山寨币旺季何时到来提供了重要线索。# h# W* Q+ Q, ^0 ]) v# H$ W" A
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备受期待的山寨币季尚未到来。相反，比特币[BTC]最近持续创下历史新高。它需要进入盘整阶段，让资本轮动到山寨币中，这样山寨币市场才能迎头赶上。2 z: c0 ?6 d- {( j
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最近超过 12.2 万美元的反弹是在没有比特币 市场 过热。这意味着反弹有支撑，并且山寨币投资者必须等待时机。不过，对他们来说，这或许并非全是坏消息。1 ~1 R6 | x7 X' g
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尤其是因为以太坊[ETH]收费朝着 3000 美元的目标前进，并可能在需求旺盛. ETH 的上涨可能有助于山寨币季节的到来。0 E5 p* ?9 h% m9 R) M9 {! w
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山寨币季度指数达到 33，比特币主导地位呈下降趋势+ S7 d9 p1 }& Z" t# @) h9 f- e2 n
截至撰写本文时，数据显示山寨币季节指数仍然较低。低于 25 的读数意味着 BTC 季节，而高于 75 的读数则表示山寨币季节。- y' A; E- w! `' O% T1 A; a/ c) g
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上一次发生这种情况是在 2024 年 11 月。在撰写本文时，该指数略高于 30 大关，自 3 月份以来从未令人信服地突破这一水平。
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要了解山寨币季节是否会进展，可以研究比特币的主导地位。3 h4 w+ y- H' `' g3 N
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BTC.D 的下跌表明，山寨币的市值增长速度快于比特币。这种情况自 6 月 27 日以来一直存在。BTC.D 指标在短短两周多的时间里仅下跌了 2.07%。然而，其影响已然深远。; J+ e! [) l7 Z6 ]3 o
1 u o! [# U: B1 u! P T山寨币市场已突破1.25万亿美元的市值阻力位。从技术分析角度来看，突破这一关键阻力位可能是看涨意愿的早期信号。未来几周，山寨币市值很有可能突破12月1.64万亿美元的高点。
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为了实现这一目标，比特币需要进一步上涨。山寨币持有者希望看到比特币大幅上涨，引领加密货币市场。通常，这波上涨行情的最后几周会导致资金轮换，使山寨币在短时间内数倍上涨——山寨币的黄金季即将到来。7 y9 C- t a6 v) w6 n) b
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这种现象通常伴随着BTC.D的自由落体，如上图所示。& F m! ^8 v% E! X
3 ?( L6 ^$ ]) f6 \8 R6 C1 l2017 年最后几个月和 2021 年上半年，BTC.D 的占比均跌至 40% 左右。截至本文撰写时，BTC.D 的占比为 64.65%，远低于 40%。因此，本轮周期是否会有所不同尚不清楚。只有时间才能给出答案。2 V- ]1 E4 o) Z: u
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