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[lastpost] => 2774969 币安比特币和以太坊库存增加，现在是最佳加密货币购买时机（转） 1760890889 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
以太坊预测转向看涨：第三季度可能达到 3000 美元吗？（转）
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随着 345 万 ETH 累计价格接近 2,500 美元，以太坊预测获得看涨权重。这是否加强了 ETH 在第三季度突破 3000 美元的理由？* h+ U5 i8 g0 r1 H9 G
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以太坊[ETH]第三季度开始强劲反弹，在不到一周的时间内收复了两个主要阻力位。0 o2 c* p0 u8 T) K
$ g' Y" ?2 f& N) j毫不奇怪，这种抛物线走势会促使交易员大量做空，其中 60% 的交易所头寸倾向于看跌。2 [- O5 s I( b
6 r) \ `8 Q; m: T* P0 j要么是空头抢先拒绝，要么是他们低估了 ETH 冲动走势背后的力量。据 AMBCrypto 称，此次僵局的进展可能会影响未来一周以太坊的预测。
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. g3 { ^: ]( D* a' [- |" F9 C第三季度以太坊预测的分歧
9 \) ~8 F: _/ s) i% `有趣的是，以太坊上涨近 7% 至 2,620 美元并非只是又一次反弹。相反，这是对上周 2.4 万美元下方窄幅区间的技术突破。- H6 h' X1 b; J6 ^% _
, E; a9 y" b3 Q该区间是在 ETH 于 6 月 22 日跌至数月低点 2,114 美元后形成的。8 N+ C8 {' P- _4 E* Q; E
4 |$ r; o* Z5 H/ K; H( XETH 在不到 20 个交易日内累计上涨近 23%。通常情况下，这种持续的盘整阶段会成为持续上涨的跳板。& {3 W( T' c& z' ^" S6 L) R8 ]7 T
k, u9 F! K+ @$ T但背景很重要。在 5 月至 6 月的周期中，类似的以太坊预测在 2.8 万美元时就失败了，未能突破 3000 美元。! v9 z/ A5 g; ^( m( H/ z; ^- a
7 o7 s# H2 E' z4 l( H" I4 M随之而来的是急剧的去杠杆事件，导致 ETH 在不到两周的时间内下跌了 20%。
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; x) R9 o, m- S `6 }& o; x. c5 S快进到现在，以太坊的未平仓合约（OI）为 365 亿美元，抓挠回到 6 月中旬 417.5 亿美元的高点，就在那场大规模清算潮之前。3 \, u) d, ?3 y% i6 i$ [& m, J
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因此，空头纷纷涌入各大交易所，预期市场将再次出现上涨，这并不令人意外。* P) b* F, K% P2 y" j
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但这次的关键分歧是否会成为催化剂，证明空头过于倾向于不再适用的叙述——这可能会重新调整以太坊未来的预测？' k1 Z2 i9 a+ j+ s" f; u, ^! {1 K
Z7 s* V; W3 K" r! JETH 奠定了坚实的基础, c3 Q1 W X! f- @+ ?0 J& f
以太坊在七月份的开始并不平静。在本月第一天大幅下跌 3.2% 之后，E第二天，TH 股价迅速反弹，上涨 6.86%，引发了典型的空头挤压。* ]$ C4 t4 o4 ]( ?( c; U# E
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至关重要的是，以太坊预测的反弹不仅仅是由 ETH/BTC 比率的 3.78% 飙升所推动的。$ S2 D- M I# k' `
* L9 E/ s( O1 j* ^$ ?4 F来自 Glassnode 的链上数据亮点2,513 美元至 2,536 美元的区间是主要需求区域，该水平已积累超过 345 万 ETH，这标志着 ETH 成为数月来最强劲的支撑区之一。
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有证据表明，现货 ETH ETF流入量急剧飙升7 月 3 日，该片上映票房达到 1.48 亿美元，创下近一个月以来单日最高纪录。
3 \' g2 I- }" L% W1 c% c& H8 P# Y$ E: {- H; P9 a! }5 @5 F
事实上，7 月份 ETF 总流入量目前已达到 3 亿美元，凸显了现货需求的稳步增长。/ x9 A4 v( {! U+ R$ D# V
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这种分歧很重要。! K; E+ z7 J. h
! ?5 ~5 I; h! G2 r: y将阻力位转化为支撑位是收复高点的第一步。随着现货资金流入的增加，以太坊的预测似乎稳步迈向其 3000 美元的目标，并且随着第三季度的展开，以太坊可能还会进一步上涨。 l* Y& @7 ^/ N
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