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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季（转）
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最近，在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下，山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎2 U8 M) [; ]' z# X0 y* F
新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头？
+ N6 v' \4 Q8 ^/ w六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位，今年也不例外。事实上，BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上，创下新的周期高点。
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然而，今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下，人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产，以利用短期波动。然而，BTC.D 却一路走高。' @( n- k }" _' r1 T% [4 H- u3 u
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这是市场的转折点吗？宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性，而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币?
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随着资本整合至 BTC，山寨季指标下跌
. p1 _6 f4 u5 Z' x- a, t4 Q要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系，我们需要退一步来看。
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% M t' T# [$ U& F9 p6 S在 2022 年熊市期间，一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌，导致年度净亏损 65%，并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。
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+ M% b# s# x) |/ B7 ?& y有趣的是，同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言，ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动，甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破，在此期间表现优于 BTC。
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% V; ~6 h4 S6 t7 Q! a3 P% y4 |% |简而言之，包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲，短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。7 ?9 H9 X' f1 O- y
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三年后，形势发生了逆转。
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- C% B1 D0 Q2 D这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点，山寨币的月度损失达到两位数，而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时，宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。
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发生了什么变化？机构资本.
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大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且，他们对BTC的偏好，将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚，使其主导地位持续上升。0 l' C9 }( ]; }2 n% c* ~
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零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性，许多人选择将资金投入BTC，以长期稳定性，而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。
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因此，只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在，山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。$ p+ t$ e3 [8 e7 q; }
+ M, {9 B W" d山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上
9 a0 T. m7 B: F8 ~0 ~- t6 M我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季，它不再受“炒作”驱动，而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次，像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链，索拉纳[SOL]，XRP 可能会引领潮流。
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1 Y. b* [- F4 I$ S: s# s这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础，并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。& n: q: E v3 n7 k$ T6 {
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XRP新的稳定币，RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名，并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。, m$ g$ Q- q6 }2 o( @" f1 c
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尽管如此，要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞，市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此，我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。7 D' s6 D' ^& y0 c6 `& M
6 s5 J" z7 i s, j& @7 R) _在机构资金流动的推动下，比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而，在表面之下，山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且，这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。) [$ c8 t2 F ]3 g. {6 T
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