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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。) T' `6 ]5 U6 A; j! J( u
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9 c6 Y6 v/ r' A- |0 z" I 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续! H* ?% R1 N/ o- G2 E9 [$ T% W
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。/ ^+ L( X) s5 f' c( V0 ]0 N
0 B' | a# ]( O& }- K& O 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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: ]/ z" D7 K0 a: x 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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2 w7 ]8 x8 }. V$ I8 d 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。) b$ g3 i9 e6 U
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，) k# ? v& E2 i& q ~) b3 h! ?% N# ~
* `0 L w; L. q, L6 w$ |( _$ Y价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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5 Z7 c/ t; W/ t+ Y! n1 s$ d “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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; h: _5 Q* e" e( D( h( S9 d! n 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在1 {5 K$ T2 M8 v" E
% G+ f2 w+ `3 _0 e积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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4 _$ M; T: f/ x: f$ l 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。* Z' ^: u) A q3 X
( F3 j9 x7 I' ]3 }1 `/ k, E8 K 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。- o7 k( S' s5 T
2 { Z/ x$ F- l+ m5 Y9 Y+ Q; q 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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1 v. r" |; {5 O 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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1 U+ P) Z$ p% K: p* Y 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，3 M' I1 E& z) X9 r: J
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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