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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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- j5 @! |- h9 D( N+ @' N 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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4 b+ I: J3 l8 K5 D& E$ J" A 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。4 `# ?4 t7 \( e5 e
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。: F8 t$ o# M" v* \; l# I
6 s' T; ~9 ~% W 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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: P7 s; f6 k- `; N 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。; |$ [) B3 ?' o: ~6 b
. s! Y( K$ n$ U- O" L6 _! Q 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，: @. e; z' n9 j1 c' z# c
+ r% j$ P( a' f; ]9 B% \价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。2 D/ I& q/ e4 H/ c4 R4 I
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间9 C( d0 D# d, G7 N0 P* I! {
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”$ X; v" W+ k9 v3 C4 d7 U
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4 q8 @4 j) b$ s/ O* d- W3 k6 i 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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6 Q) J6 ]( j, V: n, u" t “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在/ Q% s; v* M6 g
* J, m( e3 B2 @" [" d# z3 ?: ]积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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. K# D/ Q2 d/ r) v4 o 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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+ Y+ h' J6 c* M) s( M* |0 u# g+ K 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。1 N) s! v( K2 B2 Y4 Y5 j: Z. c
" `8 {7 |. x5 ~. e7 o 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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" W% |2 l; e3 m& T3 a( Z$ D 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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! S) S" ? s2 b6 @ 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，* J. U0 p9 r2 l' Z& `; E
9 P; l* z' P% `% h; f, t# d市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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