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[虚拟币交流]
比特币现货ETF流量及其最新脱钩——是时候小心了吗？（转）
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比特币现货ETF似乎正在失去其在整个市场的影响力
0 J9 e# u$ Q; F7 y" F# p3 W! O比特币可能在本周下半年出现短期下跌
& _2 @" {' k, D* S* X. o2 m' V周三，比特币在注意到自1月8日以来持续的资金外流后，首次录得正的现货ETF流量。然而，最新的ETF流量也揭示了一些关于其影响的其他有趣发现。
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9 }8 j! A2 E4 l/ U1 Q比特币的价格走势在很大程度上，这与现货ETF的流动是同步的。然而，最近情况并非如此。例如，BTC从本周早些时候的最低点上涨了12.81%，周三触及当地高点100175美元。与此同时，比特币现货ETF在周三之前的一周内只出现了负流量。7 w) r9 U6 V. w
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简而言之，尽管现货ETF资金外流，比特币本周仍成功实现了反弹。这突显了一种脱钩，这种脱钩也可能在本周剩余时间内持续。
+ B5 O( u$ A; _. } v o4 E* @! [/ }
然而，1月15日，比特币现货ETF流量记录了价值7.551亿美元的流入。这是本月迄今为止记录的第三高日流量。% j" y4 H# Y9 l/ Z1 I: H" P
3 p2 E. g6 a6 X3 r% T' K值得指出的是，尽管有这些发现，但在过去的24小时里，BTC确实略有下跌，图表上的跌幅略高于1.5%。. a$ |: ]6 f% B6 G& E& q$ m
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比特币在活动疲软的情况下保持对短期楔形模式的关注
9 Q: I. E0 ~0 t0 d3 V在撰写本文时，比特币的交易价格为99236美元。此外，图表上出现更多下行似乎是一种真正的可能性。
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/ c6 z$ G) {9 ?5 \1 n2 J/ T潜在下行的原因是比特币的最新价格上涨重新测试了下行阻力线。它还显示出过去24小时的一些抛售压力，这表明阻力位仍然强劲。
- V3 e- Q0 o7 f; ^2 R* S7 Q+ P. J9 @; E2 m& N4 C7 U) H/ U
此外，链上数据显示，BTC在现货市场一直出现资金外流。事实上，仅在过去24小时内，加密货币就有1.5601亿美元的现货流出。
5 Y1 e" C; `- u& |8 i6 a0 H3 V* e' {* X
现货资金外流的激增表明，投资者仍专注于短期获利回吐。这可能会提供对当前需求状况的见解——这表明短期情绪并不乐观。
5 F& b, |' y9 O' ]. V% \
% w0 O4 y5 r* q- [( c* f8 C5 M: `$ s鲸鱼活动也与短期情绪一致。例如，最新的大持有者流量数据显示，周三有1420个BTC流入，而同期有494个BTC流出。鲸鱼的需求更高，因此影响了看涨表现。0 I( X8 j3 ?# u$ D+ a0 x B
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虽然鲸鱼的需求明显高于外流，但也值得注意的是，整体需求疲软。尤其是与12月的需求激增相比。5 Q& p8 a& I' z; H! ^/ ^
. \' K6 V4 Y7 \4 t4 x" I8 N鲸鱼的低参与率充分说明了市场的信心水平。这可能表明比特币仍然局限于短期走势，在这种情况下，价格可能会从阻力位回落。然而，投资者应该注意可能影响市场的重大发展。 y1 E( B' d v
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