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[虚拟币交流]
比特币可能在未来两天内开始反弹至15万美元：分析（转）
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分析师Ali Martinez认为，比特币可能会在未来两天内开始反弹至15万美元，然后出现大幅回调。2 n! T3 R, N9 n2 P' z
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比特币与前几周的剧烈波动不同，过去几天一直处于持有模式，没有出现重大价格变动。
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" m1 u% w( v" _1 J; m自11月13日比特币达到93500美元的峰值以来，它一直在努力走高。虽然它经历了温和的调整，跌至86682美元，但此后反弹至92600美元。# r# C7 M8 S3 l& s
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在过去的六天里，比特币在8.9万美元至9.1万美元之间波动，价格没有重大变化。在这个被动市场中，参与者既谨慎又兴奋，预计会出现大幅下跌或大幅上涨。8 P% D, l9 [7 j, T7 v( H% }' @
7 \0 v5 R2 i$ p" ^与此同时，像Ali Martinez这样的分析师正在研究历史趋势，以预测比特币的下一个可能走势。
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6 C: U* b* q. I# C# O& t5 O历史表明，比特币在大幅调整前可能达到13.8万美元9 N1 R! p. Q6 b8 d
在A更新今天早些时候，Martinez指出，在2016/2017牛市期间，比特币价格飙升了156%，超过了首次大幅调整前的历史最高点，首次大幅调整使其价值蒸发了39% ；
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同样，他指出，在2020/2021年的周期中，比特币的价值增长了121%，然后经历了32%的回调，抹去了其中的一些涨幅。基于这些观察，他认为比特币在面临首次大幅回调之前可能会达到至少13.8万美元 ；
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( N/ @ D8 H9 e ^0 z比特币牛市可能在两天内爆发，目标价为15万美元/ L7 d+ _9 O& a4 _! l7 W
与此同时，在后续帖子中，马丁内斯强调比特币正在密切镜像前两个牛市周期的模式。
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1 O& b, Q1 w$ Y3 j9 u他之前曾指出，在比特币上个季度夺回19700美元的峰值后，它飙升了26%，然后巩固了一周。整合之后，价格大幅上涨至40000美元。3 y Y$ R1 b2 S' Z0 k
. c# N4 u) N: a值得注意的是，在目前的情况下，比特币已经比3月份的峰值73750美元飙升了26.7%，并且自达到93500美元的新峰值以来，在过去的六天里一直在巩固。) C- s$ `7 ^0 t z9 N: [. r: I
6 W; k/ H/ O3 C! t# Y因此，马丁内斯相信如果历史可以作为参考的话，市场可能会在未来一两天内再次突破，目标价约为15万美元。
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! `" x1 f- T4 V( Y1 v牛市后调整期间的潜在价格目标$ L8 }" C% ?0 c/ Y; L) M4 D
值得注意的是，15万美元的目标与比特币的历史趋势相一致，在经历约30%的大幅调整之前，比特币在超过以往的历史高点后通常会上涨100%或更多 ；3 i5 P2 [- M2 \2 v% f
& U+ M; z) R N" y _如果这种情况发生，如果比特币首次声称15万美元目标如果峰值接近13.8万美元，则达到9.6万美元。
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, x0 Q0 j: t; h" {2 ]与此同时，Martinez强调了8.3万至8.5万美元和7.2万至7.5万美元的价格区间，作为市场从看涨转为看跌的潜在支撑区域。
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